首页|中国耕地补充与撂荒的空间关系识别及其失衡归因

中国耕地补充与撂荒的空间关系识别及其失衡归因

扫码查看
研究目的:探究耕地补充与耕地撂荒的空间匹配关系,为耕地保护和开发提供科学依据.研究方法:遥感监测、空间自相关分析、空间失衡指数、地理探测器和增强回归树模型.研究结果:(1)近20年中国耕地年均补充263.22×104 hm2,年均补充率为1.39%,集中分布于西北、东北和西南地区.耕地年均撂荒226.68×104 hm2,年均撂荒率为1.19%,主要分布于黄河中游和西南地区.(2)耕地补充和耕地撂荒之间以轻度失衡和不失衡为主,但极度失衡和重度失衡的单元数量逐年增加.至2020年,中度、重度和极度失衡的单元占16.87%,主要分布在西北、黄河中游、西南和南部沿海地区.(3)高—高集聚和低—低集聚是耕地补充和撂荒失衡的主要空间集聚模式.其中,高—高集聚区集中在西北、黄河中游、西南和南部沿海地区,低—低集聚区集中在东北、长江中游、西南和北部沿海地区.(4)坡度和年平均降水量为耕地补充与撂荒空间失衡主要的自然资源驱动因子,非农从业人数、农业机械总动力是主要的社会经济驱动因子.研究结论:耕地补充和撂荒之间空间失衡具有复杂性且受当地自然条件和经济社会因素的交互影响,未来应基于不同的情景和目标综合确定最优的利用模式,为高质量耕地保护提供科学依据.
Spatial Relationship and Imbalanced Attribution of Cultivated Land Reclamation and Abandonment in China
The purpose of this study is to explore the spatial matching relationship between reclamation and abandonment of cultivated land,to provide a scientific basis for cultivated land protection and development.The research methods included remote sensing monitoring,spatial autocorrelation analysis,spatial imbalance index,geographical detector and enhanced regression tree modeling.The research results showed that:1)in the past 20 years,the annual average cultivated land reclamation in China had been 263.22×104 hm2,with an average annual reclamation rate of 1.39%,and was relatively concentrated in the northwestern,northeastern and southwestern regions.The annual average cultivated land abandonment was 226.68×104 hm2,with an average annual abandonment rate of 1.19%,mainly in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the southwestern region.2)The spatial relationship between reclamation and abandonment of cultivated land is dominated by light imbalance and no imbalance,however,the number of counties with extreme imbalance and heavy imbalance has been increasing yearly.By 2020,the total proportion of counties with moderate,heavy and extreme imbalance reached 16.87%,mainly distributed in the northwest,the middle reaches of the Yellow River,the southwest and the southern coastal areas.3)High-high and low-low agglomeration were the main spatial agglomeration patterns of cultivated land reclamation and abandonment.Among them,high-high agglomeration areas were concentrated in the northwest,middle reaches of the Yellow River,southwest and southern coastal areas,while low-low agglomeration areas were concentrated in the northeast,middle reaches of the Yangtze River,southwest and northern coastal areas.4)Slope and average annual precipitation were the main natural resource drivers of the spatial imbalance between reclamation and abandonment of cultivated land,while the number of off-farm employees and the total power of agricultural machinery were the main socioeconomic drivers.It concludes that the spatial imbalance between cultivated land reclamation and cultivated land abandonment is complex and influenced by the interaction of natural and socioeconomic factors,and we should comprehensively determine the optimal utilization mode based on different scenarios and goals in the future,providing scientific basis for high-quality cultivated land protection.

cultivated land reclamationcultivated land abandonmentspatial relationshipimbalance indexboosted regression tree modeling

郭维红、陈浮、杨斌、蒋非非、马静、朱新华

展开 >

中国矿业大学公共管理学院,江苏 徐州 221116

河海大学公共管理学院,江苏 南京 211100

自然资源部长三角国土生态与土地利用野外科学观测研究站,江苏 常州 213200

耕地补充 耕地撂荒 空间关系 失衡指数 增强回归树模型

国家社会科学基金重大项目自然资源部长三角国土生态与土地利用野外科学观测研究站开放基金江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划中国矿业大学研究生创新计划

23&ZD1412023YRDLELU01KYCX24_29692024WLKXJ125

2024

中国土地科学
中国土地学会 中国土地勘测规划院

中国土地科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.396
ISSN:1001-8158
年,卷(期):2024.38(7)