摘要
研究目的:厘清耕地利用强度和碳排放之间的关联反馈,明确实现低碳增长的可能性.研究方法:以黄河流域中段的25个地级市为研究区,基于IPCC排放系数法核算耕地利用碳排放量并采用Tapio脱钩模型评估耕地利用碳排放与耕地利用强度之间的关系.研究结果:(1)研究期间黄河流域中游耕地利用强度持续上升,从0.42增加至0.66,耕地利用强度空间聚集效应显著;(2)黄河流域中游耕地利用碳排放量呈先升后降的倒"U"型变化特征,空间分布格局基本呈"南部高、北部和西部低"的特征,且碳排放强度水平相近的城市呈相邻分布;(3)黄河流域中游耕地利用碳排放与耕地利用强度经历了弱脱钩—扩张负脱钩—强脱钩三种状态,代表着由不理想状态向理想状态的转变.研究结论:耕地利用强度与碳排放的脱钩关系在不同阶段和地区有明显差异,实现低碳增长应因地制宜采用差异性管控政策.
Abstract
The purposes of this study are to clarify the feedback relationship between cultivated land use intensity(CLUI)and cultivated land use carbon emissions(CLUCE)and to assess the potential for achieving low-carbon agricultural growth in the middle Yellow River Basin by analyzing the spatial and temporal patterns of CLUI and CLUCE between 2005 and 2020,as well as evaluating their decoupling relationship to inform sustainable land use practices.The research methods are as follows.Focusing on 25 cities in the middle section of the Yellow River Basin,we calculated carbon emissions from cultivated land use based on the IPCC emission factor method,and the relationship between cultivated land use intensity and carbon emissions was evaluated using the Tapio decoupling model.Decoupling elasticity indices were calculated for three periods:2005-2010,2010-2015 and 2015-2020.The research results show that:1)between 2005 and 2020,the cultivated land use intensity in the Mid-Yellow River Basin continuously increased,rising from 0.42 to 0.66,accompanied by a pronounced spatial clustering effect.The southern cities exhibited stable high CLUI levels(hot spots),while the western cities showed lower CLUI(cold spots)that gradually shrank over time.2)The carbon emissions from cultivated land use exhibited an"inverted U-shaped"trend,first rising and then falling,with a spatial distribution pattern characterized by"high in the south,low in the north and west,"and neighboring cities showing similar levels of carbon emission intensity.3)The relationship between cultivated land use intensity and carbon emissions in the Mid-Yellow River Basin experienced three states,i.e.,weak decoupling,expansive negative decoupling and strong decoupling,signifying a transition from an undesirable state to a desirable one.In conclusion,decoupling relationship between CLUI and carbon emissions shows significant differences in different stages and regions,and the differentiated regulation measurements for low-carbon development should be undertaken according to the context-specific conditions.
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