Classification and Quantitative Analysis Method of Railway Traffic Accident Loss
The classification and measurement of accident losses are the most fundamental issues in understanding the law of accidents.This paper analyzes and studies the description mode of railway traffic accidents according to the Rules on Investigation and Handling of Railway Traffic Accidents;determines the event types of different railway traffic accidents by drawing an event chain diagram,and summarizes the scenario types of railway traffic accidents of final events;studies and proposes the classification of railway traffic accident losses oriented to benchmark consistency according to the characteristics of railway traffic accident classification;studies and proposes the quantitative analysis method of accident losses according to its different types.The results show that railway traffic accidents are classified into quantitative accidents and qualitative accidents by description mode,and into initial events,intermediate events or final events by event chain.All railway traffic accidents can be unified into 5 accident loss benchmark types:personnel loss,derailment loss,rolling stock loss,smooth traffic loss and direct economic loss.The direct loss of quantitative accidents is suitable to be characterized by accident consequence level,and the loss can be estimated through equivalent conversion criteria and equivalent conversion functions between quantitative accident loss types.The expected loss of qualitative accidents needs to be characterized by the severity of risk consequences,and the qualitative accidents are mapped to the quantitative accidents of final event type through event chain analysis to realize the evaluation of qualitative accident loss.The study results can provide practical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of railway safety management,and provide technical support for scientific judgment and control of railway safety risks based on safety big data information.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
