未来气候情景下高寒区水稻延迟型冷害演变特征研究
A Study on the Change Characteristics of Delayed Growth-type Rice Cold Damage in Very Cold Regions under Future Climate Scenarios
韩俊杰 1石红艳 2初征 1翟墨 1那荣波 1季生太 3何锋 1庞云超 1姜丽霞1
作者信息
- 1. 黑龙江省气象科学研究所,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030
- 2. 双鸭山市气象局,黑龙江 双鸭山 155100
- 3. 黑龙江省生态气象中心,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030
- 折叠
摘要
利用中国区域气候模式BCC-CSM 1.0模拟的日平均气温数据,结合国家标准中5-9月温度和的距平(ΔT)指标,判识RCP4.5情景下2024-2060年水稻延迟型冷害的演变特征.结果表明:该模式数据对研究水稻冷害较为可靠;2024-2060年,研究区水稻延迟型冷害识别年数为5～12 a,随时间呈减少趋势,其中2024-2030年、2030s为冷害高发期,2040s为低发期,2050s未发生冷害,与基准时段(1969-2005年)相比,冷害总年数大幅减少;空间分布上,水稻延迟型冷害发生频率总体呈北少南多,冷害发生频率在13.5%～32.3%,高值区位于哈尔滨东部、鸡西南部和牡丹江,而齐齐哈尔、大庆区域为低值中心,与基准时段相比,冷害高频区向南收缩并东移.研究区冷害发生范围在不同年份存在差异,IOC值呈"弹跳式"波动变化,2024、2026、2028、2029、2030、2031、2033、2035、2036、2046、2049年冷害发生范围较大,IOC高于0.42,与基准时段相比,IOC为0的年数增加,IOC高于0.50的年数减少.
Abstract
Based on the simulated daily temperature data from regional Climate Model BCC-CSM 1.0 in China,and by using the indicators of anomalies(ΔT)of temperature during May to September of national standards,delayed growth-type rice cold damage under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2024 to 2060 is identified and its evolution characteristics are ana-lyzed.The results show that the daily average temperature data simulated by BCC-CSM 1.0 is reliable for studying delayed growth-type rice cold damage;The number of years of delayed growth-type rice cold damage is 5～12 years in the study area during 2024 to 2060,and cold damage shows a decreasing trend.The frequency of cold damage is very high from 2024 to 2030 as well as 2030s,it is low in the 2040s,and there is no cold damage in the 2050s.Compared with the benchmark period(1969-2005),the sum of years of cold damage had significantly decreased in the study area;The frequency of de-layed growth-type rice cold damage generally shows a spatial distribution of less in the north and more in the south,and the frequency of cold damage rangs from 13.5%to 32.3%.The high-frequency area is located in the eastern of Harbin,south-ern of Jixi,and Mudanjiang,while the low-frequency area centers in Qiqihar and Daqing of the western of the study area.Compared with the benchmark period(1969-2005),the high-frequency area of cold damage shows a characteristic of shrinking southward and moving eastward.There are differences in the occurrence range of different degrees of cold damage in the study area from 2024 to 2060,and the IOC value shows a"bouncing"fluctuation.The occurrence range of cold damage in 2024,2026,2028,2029,2030,2031,2033,2035,2036,2046,and 2049 is relatively large,and IOC value is above 0.42,compared to the benchmark period(1969-2005),the number of years increased which IOC value is 0,while the number of years decreased which IOC value is above 0.50.
关键词
水稻/延迟型冷害/冷害演变特征/高寒区/BCC-CSM/1.0模拟Key words
rice/delayed growth-type cold damage/evolution characteristics of cold damage/very cold region/BCC-CSM 1.0 simulation引用本文复制引用
出版年
2025
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据