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湖南省地震灾害风险评估研究

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基于最新的地震潜在震源划分成果,该研究对湖南省在不同超越概率水平下的地震危险性进行了分析,并将其作为地震灾害风险评估的关键地震作用输入.通过对湖南省各地区典型建筑典型房屋建筑物进行抽样调查,修正了区域建筑物群体的易损性,结合房屋、人口和GDP等关键承灾体数据,对全省地震灾害风险可能引发的人员死亡和直接经济损失进行了初步评估.结果表明,除常德等局部地区外,湖南省整体地震危险性相对较低.然而,由于建筑物的抗震能力普遍不足,地震可能带来的人员伤亡和经济损失仍需引起关注.特别是在基本设防烈度下,某些局部地区的人员死亡和经济损失尤为严重,呈现出"中等地震引发重大灾害"的不利局面.
Research on Seismic Disaster Risk Assessment in Hunan Province
Based on the latest potential earthquake source division results,the seismic hazard analysis is conducted,and the seismic hazard results under different probability levels in Hunan Province are calculated,which are used as the seismic action input for seismic disaster risk assessment.Based on a sampling survey of typi-cal buildings in various regions of Hunan Province,the seismic vulnerability of regional building groups is revised,and according to the kilometer grid data of disaster-bearing bodies such as houses,population,and gross domes-tic product(GDP),a preliminary assessment of the death toll and direct economic losses caused by seismic disas-ter risk in Hunan province is conducted.The results show that,except for some local areas such as Changde,the overall seismic hazard in the province is not high.However,due to the general poor earthquake resistance of build-ings,the death toll and direct economic losses caused by earthquake action cannot be ignored.Especially in some local areas,under the basic fortification intensity,the death toll and direct economic losses are too high,showing an unfavorable situation of"large losses caused by medium-sized earthquakes".

seismic hazard analysisseismic disaster risksampling surveyseismic capacity

邵磊、胡刚、田优平、旷嘉琦

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湖南省地震局,湖南 长沙 410004

湖南省震灾风险防治中心,湖南 长沙 410001

中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京 100081

地震危险性分析 地震灾害风险 抽样调查 抗震能力

2025

灾害学
陕西省地震局

灾害学

北大核心
影响因子:1.548
ISSN:1000-811X
年,卷(期):2025.40(1)