从镇雄1.22山体滑坡事件浅析冬季滑坡伤亡事件规律
Brief Analysis on the Regular Pattern of Winter Landslide Casualties from Zhenxiong 1.22 Landslide Incident
黄远东 1许冲 2薛智文 1胡杰 2郭永翔 3付登文4
作者信息
- 1. 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京,100085;复合链生自然灾害动力学应急管理部重点实验室,北京,100085;中国科学院大学 应急管理科学与工程学院,北京,100049
- 2. 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京,100085;复合链生自然灾害动力学应急管理部重点实验室,北京,100085
- 3. 中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司,云南 昆明,650051
- 4. 云南省煤炭地质勘查院,云南 昆明,650218
- 折叠
摘要
2024年1月云南镇雄发生严重的滑坡伤亡事件.鉴于其地点和季节与13年前的事件相似,引发了公众对冬季是否为该地区滑坡高发期的讨论.该文回顾了2013-2021年全国的滑坡伤亡事件,分析了冬季滑坡伤亡事件的时空分布规律.同时,初步分析了冬季事件的气象特征.结果表明,镇雄县记录了至少8起滑坡伤亡事件,但全国和云南省的滑坡高峰多在夏季汛期.冬季滑坡多发于中南部和西北部地区,尤其是西北部.气象分析显示,雨雪天气与灾前气温短暂回升具有重要影响.通过对比2024年和2013年的两次滑坡事件,尽管地形、基岩条件以及灾前的天气状况存在相似之处,但滑坡的规模、影响范围以及涉及的物质成分存在明显差异.这些发现有助于理解冬季滑坡灾害的分布规律和气象影响因素.
Abstract
A serious landslide casualty occurred in January 2024 in Zhenxiong,Yunnan Province.Given the similarity of its location and season to the event 13 years ago,it triggered a discussion on whether winter is prone to landslide disasters in the neighborhood.In this study,based on the landslide casualty events in China from 2013 to 2021,the distribution pattern of peripheral winter landslide casualty events in the spatial and tempo-ral dimensions is analyzed.Meteorological characteristics of winter events are collected and preliminarily ana-lyzed.The results show that at least eight landslide casualty events are recorded in Zhenxiong County,but the peak of landslides in the country and Yunnan Province is mostly during the summer flood season.Winter landslides occurred mostly in the central-south and northwestern regions,especially in the northwestern part of china.Meteo-rological analyses show that rain and snow have a significant impact along with a brief warming of temperatures prior to the disaster.Comparing the two events in 2024 and 2013,the terrain,bedrock and pre-disaster weather are similar,but the landslide size,impact area and material are different.
关键词
历史滑坡伤亡事件/镇雄滑坡/冬季滑坡/分布规律Key words
historical landslide casualties/Zhenxiong landslide/winter landslide/distribution pattern引用本文复制引用
出版年
2025
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据