首页|基于DEA模型的区域物流与应急管理协同发展测度——以京津冀地区为例

基于DEA模型的区域物流与应急管理协同发展测度——以京津冀地区为例

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当今世界自然灾害、公共卫生事件、军事冲突等突发事件频发,对各地发展带来较大隐患.应急管理成为构建安全生产和社会稳定的坚实保障,而区域物流是应急管理实现的主要载体,科学评价两者协同程度,对推动区域可持续发展具有重要意义.该文以京津冀为例,运用DEA模型对2014-2023年区域物流与应急管理协同发展水平进行测度,二者之间的协同发展趋势呈现出阶段性波动趋势,后用Tobit回归模型测评影响两者协同发展效率的因素,结果表明:城市化进程和区位因素对二者的协同发展效率显著正相关,应急储备水平对京津冀区域物流与应急管理协同发展效率显著负相关,而产业结构和信息化水平均未达到显著性水平.该成果以期为优化区域物流与应急管理的协同策略提供参考依据.
Measurement of Coordinated Development of Regional Logistics and Emergency Management Based on DEA Model——Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as an Example
In today's world,natural disasters,public health events,military conflicts and other emergencies occur frequently,which bring great hidden dangers to the development of various regions.Emergency management has become a solid guarantee for building safe production and social stability,and regional logistics is the main carrier of emergency management.Scientific evaluation of the degree of synergy between the two is of great significance for promot-ing regional sustainable development.Therefore,taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration as an example,a DEA model is constructed to measure the coordinated development level of regional logistics and emergency management from 2014 to 2023.The coordinated development trend between the two shows a fluctuating trend.Then,the Tobit re-gression model is used to evaluate the factors affecting the coordinated development efficiency of the two.The results show that the urbanization process and location factors have a significant positive correlation with the coordinated development efficiency of the two.The level of emergency reserve has a significant negative correlation with the coordinated develop-ment efficiency of regional logistics and emergency management in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,while the industrial structure and information level have not reached a significant level.

DEA modelregional logisticsemergency managementTobit regression model

李佰辰、贺玉德、李佳培、葛明娜

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河北地质大学 管理学院,河北 石家庄,050031

河北省矿产资源战略与管理研究基地,河北 石家庄,050031

DEA模型 区域物流 应急管理 Tobit回归模型

2025

灾害学
陕西省地震局

灾害学

北大核心
影响因子:1.548
ISSN:1000-811X
年,卷(期):2025.40(1)