Risk factors for pulmonary infection in peritoneal dialysis patients and establishment of prediction model
OBJECTIVE To explore the risk factors for pulmonary infection in the peritoneal dialysis patients,es-tablish the prediction model and analyze its predictive value.METHODS A total of 194 peritoneal dialysis patients who were treated in Yixing People's Hospital from Oct 2019 to Oct 2022 were enrolled in the study and were di-vided into the infection group with 34 cases and the no infection group with 160 cases according to the status of pulmonary infection.Sputum specimens were collected to carry out etiological examination.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for the risk factors for the pulmonary infection in the peritoneal dialysis pa-tients,the prediction model was established,and the predictive value of the model was analyzed by means of re-ceiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.RESULTS The incidence of pulmonary infection was 17.53％(34/194)among the peritoneal dialysis patients.Totally 42 strains of pathogens were isolated,8(19.05％)of which were gram-positive bacteria,30(71.43％)were gram-negative bacteria,and 4(9.52％)were fungi.No less than 60 months of dialysis and no less than 3 times of hospital stay were the risk factors for the pulmonary infection in the peritoneal dialysis patients(P＜0.05).The prediction model that was established based on the screened risk factors was as follows:Logit(P)=-10.382+no less than 60 months of dialysis ×0.617+no less than 3 times of hospital stay × 0.783.The area under curve(AUC)of the prediction probability was 0.914.CONCLUSION The incidence of pulmonary infection is high among the peritoneal dialysis patients.The gram-negative bacteria are dominant among the pathogens.Long time period of dialysis and large number of times of hospital stay are the risk factors for the pulmonary infection.The prediction model that is established based on the risk factors has high predictive value.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
