Construction and evaluation of risk factor prediction model for intracranial infection after neuroendoscopic transnasal intracranial tumor surgery
OBJECTIVE To analyze the risk factors of intracranial infection after neuroendoscopic transnasal in-tracranial tumor surgery,establish a risk prediction model and evaluate the effect.METHODS A total of 439 pa-tients who underwent neuroendoscopic transnasal intracranial tumor surgery in a neurosurgical ward of Beijing Tiantan Hospital from Jan.to Jun.in 2022 were selected as the study subjects,and they were divided into the in-fection group(38 cases)and the non-infection group(401 cases)according to whether or not they suffered from postoperative intracranial infections.Relevant clinical data were collected,logistic regression analysis was used to summarize the risk factors of postoperative intracranial infections and to construct a model,and the receiver oper-ating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the model.RESULTS The rate of intracranial infection in patients undergoing neurosurgical transnasal intracranial tumor surgery was 8.66％(38/439).The risk factors of intracranial infection after neuroendoscopic transnasal intracranial tumor surgery included longer operation dura-tion,intraoperative opening of the dura mater,placement of lumbar cistern drainage and postoperative occurrence of cerebrospinal fluid leakage(P＜0.05).The nomogram model was constructed and validated,and ROC curve showed that the area under the curve of the model was 0.849(95％CI:0.789-0.909),with a good verification effect(X2=4.904,P=0.768)of the model.CONCLUSION Construction of a predictive model for the risk of in-tracranial infection after neuroendoscopic transnasal intracranial tumor surgery can identify early high-risk patients and provide evidence for preventive measures.
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