Risk factors for pulmonary infection in patients with head and neck malignant tumors undergoing radical surgery and preventive tracheotomy and establishment of prediction model
OBJECTIVE To explore the risk factors for pulmonary infection in the patients with head and neck ma-lignant tumors undergoing radical surgery and preventive tracheotomy and establish the prediction model.METHODS Totally 138 patients with locally advanced oral carcinoma who underwent radical surgery and preven-tive tracheotomy in Xuzhou Central Hospital from Mar 2018 to Mar 2023 were recruited as the research subjects and were,in a 3∶1 ratio,randomly divided into the training set with 104 cases and the validation set with 34 ca-ses by using R language software.The patients of the training set were brought into statistical analysis and were divided into the pulmonary infection group with 53 cases and the non-infection group with 51 cases.Multifactor lo-gistic regression analysis was performed for the risk factors for the pulmonary infection in the tracheotomy pa-tients of the training set.A nomogram prediction model was built by using R software;the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,clinical decision curve and calibration curve of the model were drawn,and the predic-tion model was validated by using the validation set data.RESULTS The logistic regression analysis showed that the history of diabetes mellitus and extension of cannula indwelling time were the risk factors(P＜0.05),and the rise of prognosis nutrition indexes was the protective factor(P＜0.05).The area under ROC curve of nomogram model was 0.813 in the training set,0.858 in the validation set,indicating that the internal validation curve of the model fit well.CONCLUSION The nomogram model has high clinical value in prediction of the postoperative pul-monary infection of the patients with head and neck malignant tumors undergoing radical surgery and preventive tracheotomy.
Preventive tracheotomyPulmonary infectionRadical surgety for head and neck malignant tumorRadical surgeryRisk factorNomogram model
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