Risk factors for pulmonary infection in elderly chronic heart failure patients complicated with diabetes mellitus and establishment of prediction model
OBJECTIVE To investigate the risk factors for pulmonary infection in the elderly chronic heart failure(CHF)patients complicated with diabetes mellitus and establish the risk model.METHODS A total of 126 elderly CHF patients complicated with diabetes mellitus who were treated in Hengshui People's Hospital from Jan 2020 to Jun 2022 were enrolled in the study and were divided into the infection group with 26 cases and the no infection group with 100 cases according to the status of pulmonary infection.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for the risk factors for the pulmonary infection,the prediction model was established,and the value of the model in diagnosis of the pulmonary infection was analyzed by means of receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.RESULTS There were significant differences in the age,length of hospital stay,long bedridden,history of hypertension,smoking history,complication with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and invasive procedures between the two groups of patients(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic stepwise regression analysis indica-ted that age(OR=3.418,95％CI:1.895-6.165),long bedridden(OR=3.059,95％CI:1.823-5.132)and invasive procedures(OR=4.225,95％CI:2.062-8.657)were the risk factors for the pulmonary infection in the eldelry CHF patients complicated with diabetes mellitus(P＜0.05).The prediction model was established based on the screened risk factors,and the result of ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve(AUC)of the model was 0.801 in prediction of the pulmonary infectionin the elderly CHF patients complicated with diabetes mellitus,with the 95％CI 0.751-0.851.CONCLUSION The age,long bedridden time and invasive procedures are the risk factors for the pulmonary infection in the elderly CHF patients complicated with diabetes mellitus.The established risk prediction model has high value in prediction of pulmonary infection.
The elderlyChronic heart failureDiabetes mellitusPulmonary infectionRisk factorPrediction model
NETL
NSTL
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