Disease burden analysis of lower respiratory infections in Asia between 1990 and 2019 and forecast from 2020 to 2029
OBJECTIVE To analyze the burden of disease of lower respiratory infections(LRIs)by age,sex,and country and their attributable risk factors in 48 countries and territories in Asia from 1990 to 2019,and to predict the trend in the next 10 years.METHODS We analyzed disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)and age-standard-ized DALYs rates due to LRIs through the 2019 global burden of disease(GBD)database.Age-standardized DA-LYs rates of LRIs in Asia during 2020-2029 were predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARI-MA)model in R 4.2.2 software.RESULTS In 2019,the overall DALYs of LRIs in the Asian region was 42 777 700 person-years,which was decreased by 69.1％since 1990.The overall age-standardized DALYs rate for LRIs was 1 130 cases per 100 000 people(999.4 to 1 291),a decline of 70.5％since 1990,with an EAPC of-4.20(-4.29 to 4.11).In 2019,the number of DALYs in India was the highest(18 527 000 person-years),followed by Pakistan(4 860 600 person-years)and China(4 020 700 person-years),and the highest age-standard-ized DALYs rate for LRIs was in Cambodia(3 385.66 per 100 000),followed by Laos(2 665.93 per 100 000)and Afghanistan(2 642.72 per 100 000).In 2019,among all-age populations in the Asian region,the rate of DALYs for LRIs was the greatest among children aged 0-5 years,and the burden of disease was the highest among newbo-rns aged 0 to 6 days.Wasting of children(3 489.26/100 000),low birth weight(1 934.65/100 000),and house-hold air pollution from solid fuels(1434.29/100,000)were the top three risk factors for the low rate of DALYs in patients＜5 years with LRIs in the Asian region in 2019.CONCLUSION Although the burden of disease in LRIs is on a downward trend over the period 1990-2019 and in projections for 2020-2029,the burden of disease in children＜5 years old remains high.Corresponding preventive measures such as vaccination,improved nutrition and exercise should be implemented,focusing on reducing exposure to relevant risk factors,especially in less de-veloped countries.
EpidemiologyLower respiratory tract infectionsDALYsBurden of diseaseRisk factorProjec-tionsAsia
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
