OBJECTIVE To analyze the risk factors for pancreatic infection in the patients with acute pancreatitis(AP)and establish the nomogram prediction model.METHODS A total of 54 AP patients complicated with pan-creatic infection who were treated in Tianjin Medical University Chu Hsien-I Memorial Hospital from Jan 2020 to Jan 2023 were assigned as the infection group,and 133 AP patients who were not complicated with pancreatic in-fection were randomly chosen as the non-infection group.Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were per-formed for the risk factors for the pancreatic infection in the AP patients,the nomogram prediction model was es-tablished,and the predictive value of the prediction model was analyzed.RESULTS Complication with hyoxemia,fasting time more than 15 days,gastrointestinal dysfunction more than 2 days and central venous catheter indwell-ing more than 6 days were the independent risk factors for the pancreatic infection in the AP patients(P＜0.05).The result of Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had high fitting degree(x2=9.722,P=0.285).The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve for the pancreatic infection was drawn based on diagnostic probability Logit(P);when Logit(P)was more than 0.234,the area under curve(AUC)was 0.823,with the 95％CI 0.764-0.882,the sensitivity 83.33％,the specificity 71.43％.CONCLUSION The pancreatic infection in the AP patients is associated with the complication of hyoxemia,fasting time,gastrointestinal dysfunction time and cen-tral venous catheter indwelling time.The nomogram prediction model has high predictive value.
关键词
急性胰腺炎/胰腺感染/危险因素/列线图预测模型
Key words
Acute pancreatitis/Pancreatic infection/Risk factor/Nomogram prediction model
维普
万方数据