Risk factors for pancreatic infection in patients with acute pancreatitis and establishment of prediction model
OBJECTIVE To analyze the risk factors for pancreatic infection in the patients with acute pancreatitis(AP)and establish the nomogram prediction model.METHODS A total of 54 AP patients complicated with pan-creatic infection who were treated in Tianjin Medical University Chu Hsien-I Memorial Hospital from Jan 2020 to Jan 2023 were assigned as the infection group,and 133 AP patients who were not complicated with pancreatic in-fection were randomly chosen as the non-infection group.Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were per-formed for the risk factors for the pancreatic infection in the AP patients,the nomogram prediction model was es-tablished,and the predictive value of the prediction model was analyzed.RESULTS Complication with hyoxemia,fasting time more than 15 days,gastrointestinal dysfunction more than 2 days and central venous catheter indwell-ing more than 6 days were the independent risk factors for the pancreatic infection in the AP patients(P＜0.05).The result of Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had high fitting degree(x2=9.722,P=0.285).The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve for the pancreatic infection was drawn based on diagnostic probability Logit(P);when Logit(P)was more than 0.234,the area under curve(AUC)was 0.823,with the 95％CI 0.764-0.882,the sensitivity 83.33％,the specificity 71.43％.CONCLUSION The pancreatic infection in the AP patients is associated with the complication of hyoxemia,fasting time,gastrointestinal dysfunction time and cen-tral venous catheter indwelling time.The nomogram prediction model has high predictive value.
Acute pancreatitisPancreatic infectionRisk factorNomogram prediction model
万方数据
维普
