Risk factors and prediction model construction of central lymph node metastasis in thyroid cancer treated by surgery
Objective To investigate the risk factors of central lymph node metastasis in thyroid cancer treated by surgery and construct pre-diction model to provide more reference for clinical diagnosis and surgery plan.Methods From January 2021 to June 2023,193 patients with thy-roid cancer treated by surgery were retrospectively studied.According to the histopathological results,all patients were divided into metastatic group(55 cases)and non-metastatic group(138 cases).The status of central lymph node metastasis was analyzed,and the independent risk factors for surgery for central lymph node metastasis were determined by univariate factor method and multivariate factor method.The prediction model was con-structed according to the above independent risk factors and the ROC curve was described to analyze the clinical prediction efficiency.Results The results of univariate and multivariate analysis of Logistic regression model showed that TNM stage Ⅲ to Ⅳ,maximum tumor diameter≥2 cm,capsule invasion,microcalcification and ultrasonic blood flow grade Ⅲ were independent risk factors for central lymph node metastasis of thyroid can-cer undergoing surgery(P<0.05).The independent risk factors of surgery for central lymph node metastasis of thyroid cancer were confirmed by Logis-tic regression model,and the independent variable partial regression coefficient model equation was established.ROC curve analysis results showed that the area under the curve for predicting the risk of central lymph node metastasis in surgery for thyroid cancer was 0.86(95％CI:0.83～0.95),the optimal cut-off value was 1.85,and the sensitivity and specificity were 90.21％and 82.90％,respectively.Conclusion surgery for central lymph node metastasis of thyroid cancer is related to TNM stage,maximum tumor diameter,envelope infiltration,microcalcification and ultrasonic blood flow grade and the prediction model based on the above factors can be used to predict the central lymph node metastasis risk.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
