浙江电力2024,Vol.43Issue(10) :65-74.DOI:10.19585/j.zjdl.202410007

考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法

A framework planning method for distribution networks considering the source-load correlation and uncertainty

赵高帅 罗涛 闫大威 张章 董晓红 靳小龙
浙江电力2024,Vol.43Issue(10) :65-74.DOI:10.19585/j.zjdl.202410007

考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法

A framework planning method for distribution networks considering the source-load correlation and uncertainty

赵高帅 1罗涛 1闫大威 1张章 1董晓红 2靳小龙2
扫码查看

作者信息

  • 1. 国网天津市电力公司经济技术研究院,天津 300170
  • 2. 天津大学 智能电网教育部重点实验室,天津 300072
  • 折叠

摘要

当前,配电网网架规划在提高电网可靠性和稳定性方面发挥了关键作用,但往往忽视了源荷出力的相关性,导致弃光率高、配电网网架投资大、线路利用率低等问题.为此,提出一种考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法.首先结合源荷历史数据,考虑光伏和负荷出力的时序自相关性,利用拉丁超立方采样和Cholesky分解法生成源、荷场景集,并计及源荷互相关性,设计源荷联合场景削减方法;其次考虑源荷出力不确定性,确定典型源荷联合场景及其概率;然后构建期望光伏消纳水平最大、期望年投资运行成本最小、线路过载概率期望值最小的配电网网架多目标优化规划模型,并考虑相关约束;采用改进NSGA-Ⅱ算法求解,生成配电网网架规划方案.最后,讨论帕累托前沿解之间的差异以及不同参数对规划结果的影响,为规划决策者提供备选方案.

Abstract

At present,distribution network framework planning plays a critical role in enhancing grid reliability and stability.However,the correlation between source and load outputs is often neglected,leading to a high rate of solar power curtailment,significant investment in the distribution network framework,and low line utilization rates.To address these issues,this paper proposes a framework planning method for distribution networks that considers the correlation and uncertainty of source and load output.Firstly,historical data on source and load is analyzed,ac-counting for the temporal autocorrelation of photovoltaic(PV)and load outputs.Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)and Cholesky decomposition are employed to generate source-load scenario sets.By incorporating their correlation,a load reduction method under these scenarios is designed accordingly.Secondly,the uncertainty in source and load outputs is considered to determine typical source-load scenarios and their probabilities.A multi-objective optimiza-tion planning model is developed for the distribution network.This model aims to maximize expected PV consump-tion,minimize the expected annual investment and operational costs,and minimize the expected value of line over-load probability,while considering relevant constraints.The improved NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm is used to solve this model and generate a distribution network framework planning scheme.Finally,the differences among Pareto frontier solu-tions and the impact of various parameters on the planning results are discussed,providing planners with alternative options for decision-making.

关键词

源荷不确定性/源荷联合场景/光伏消纳水平/线路过载概率/配电网/网架规划

Key words

source-load uncertainty/source-load integrated scenario/PV power consumption level/line overload probability/distribution network/network framework planning

引用本文复制引用

基金项目

国网天津市电力公司科技项目(经研-研发2023-09)

出版年

2024
浙江电力
浙江省电力学会 浙江省电力试验研究院

浙江电力

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.438
ISSN:1007-1881
段落导航相关论文