Relative Contribution of Internal Variability and Global Warming to Enhancement of Victoria Mode in the North Pacific during Springtime
[Objective]To explore the temporal and spatial distribution changes of Victoria mode(VM)in the North Pacific in 1900-2021(122 years),and the relative contributions of internal variability and global warming to the enhancement of interannual variability of spring VM in 122 years.[Method]Based on the data of Hadley sea surface temperature in Britain and the model data of the Sixth International Coupled Model Comparison Program(CMIP6),the relative contribution of internal variability and global warming to the increase of spring VM variability in 122 years was analyzed by multiple linear regression method.[Result and Conclusion]1)The explanatory variance of VM mode increased from 9.3%in 1900-1960 to 13.1%in 1961-2021,and the dipole structure in the northeast-southwest direction became more obvious,and the annual frequency of strong VM events was significantly increased.2)Quantitative analysis showed that the relative contributions of global warming and internal variability to the increase of interannual variability of VM in the spring of 1900-2014 were 46.67%and 34.38%respectively.
North PacificVictoria modeCMIP6internal variabilityglobal warmingmultiple linear regression
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
