内部变率和全球变暖对春季北太平洋维多利亚模态增强的相对贡献
Relative Contribution of Internal Variability and Global Warming to Enhancement of Victoria Mode in the North Pacific during Springtime
刘宇豪 1丁瑞强 2李扬1
作者信息
- 1. 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川 成都 610225
- 2. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京 100875
- 折叠
摘要
[目的]讨论北太平洋维多利亚模态(Victoria mode,VM)在1900-2021年(122 a)内时空分布变化,研究内部变率和全球变暖对春季VM在122 a年际变率增强的相对贡献.[方法]利用英国Hadley海表温度资料和第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)模式资料,采用多元线性回归方法分析内部变率和全球变暖对春季VM在122 a年际变率增强的相对贡献.[结果与结论]1)VM模态的解释方差从1900-1960年的9.3%增长到1961-2021年的13.1%,东北-西南方向的偶极子型结构变得更明显,且强VM事件年发生频率得到明显提高.2)定量分析得到全球变暖对1900-2014年春季VM的年际变率增强的相对贡献占46.67%,内部变率对1900-2014年春季VM的年际变率增强的相对贡献占34.38%.
Abstract
[Objective]To explore the temporal and spatial distribution changes of Victoria mode(VM)in the North Pacific in 1900-2021(122 years),and the relative contributions of internal variability and global warming to the enhancement of interannual variability of spring VM in 122 years.[Method]Based on the data of Hadley sea surface temperature in Britain and the model data of the Sixth International Coupled Model Comparison Program(CMIP6),the relative contribution of internal variability and global warming to the increase of spring VM variability in 122 years was analyzed by multiple linear regression method.[Result and Conclusion]1)The explanatory variance of VM mode increased from 9.3%in 1900-1960 to 13.1%in 1961-2021,and the dipole structure in the northeast-southwest direction became more obvious,and the annual frequency of strong VM events was significantly increased.2)Quantitative analysis showed that the relative contributions of global warming and internal variability to the increase of interannual variability of VM in the spring of 1900-2014 were 46.67%and 34.38%respectively.
关键词
北太平洋/维多利亚模态/CMIP6/内部变率/全球变暖/多元线性回归Key words
North Pacific/Victoria mode/CMIP6/internal variability/global warming/multiple linear regression引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42225501)
国家自然科学基金(42175042)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据