浙江省大型民营企业风险预警机制研究
Research on Risk Warning Mechanism for Large Private Enterprises in Zhejiang Province
中国人民银行浙江省分行课题组1
作者信息
- 1. 中国人民银行浙江省分行,浙江杭州 310001
- 折叠
摘要
本文复盘了大型民营企业出险全过程,提炼内外部共性特征,从理论上分析了经营、融资、交易等异常行为与内在风险概率的逻辑关系.在此基础上,构建了财务、征信、资金交易、浙江特色四大类指标的风险预警体系,对大型民企风险概率进行实证分析.结果显示,经营、融资、交易等行为对内在风险概率存在显著影响,能较好解释和预测大型民企实际风险;经测算,浙江省大型民企风险隐患个体占比较低.为此,提出加强企业数据治理、推动政银合作、"抓早抓小"妥善处置风险等政策建议.
Abstract
This article reviews the entire process of large private enterprises facing risks,distills common characteristics from both internal and external perspectives,and analyzes the logical relations between abnormal business operations,financing,and transactions and the inherent risk probability from a theoretical perspective.Based on this,a risk warning system including four categories of financial,credit,fund transaction,and Zhejiang-specific indicators is constructed to empirically analyze the risk probability of large private enterprises.The results show that behaviors such as business operations,financing,and transactions have a significant impact on the inherent risk probability and can explain and predict the actual risk of large private enterprises;And the proportion of risk-prone individuals among large private enterprises in Zhejiang Province is relatively low.Therefore,it is suggested to strengthen enterprise data governance,promote government-bank cooperation,and properly handling risks through early and small measures.
关键词
大型民营企业/企业风险预警/Logistic模型Key words
Large Private Enterprises/Enterprises Risk Warning/Logistic Model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据