Objective To construct and validate the recurrence risk scoring model of 1-year recurrence in patients with first-episode ischemic stroke based on clinical and imaging features.Methods A total of 283 patients with first-episode ischemic stroke were admitted in the 72th Group Army Hospital from March 2018 to March 2021.The clinical and imaging data were collected and followed up for 1 year to track the recurrence.Until the end of follow-up,adopt the randomization grouping principle,according to the 6:4 ratio,60％of patients were classified as the training group and 40％as the validation group.According to the multi-factor COX analysis results of the training group,a recurrence risk scoring model was established.The ROC curve was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the model and calculate the risk stratification.The validation group data was used for external validation of the model.Results Multivariate COX analysis showed that smoking/passive smoking,family history of stroke,tertiary hypertension and CSVD total load score more than 2 points were independent risk factors for recurrence of stroke within one year(P＜0.05).Used the regression coefficient ratio of the above four variables to round up and build a recurrence risk scoring model.Among them,the risk scores of smoking/passive smoking,family history of stroke,tertiary hypertension and CSVD total load score＞2 were 1,1,1,and 2 points.The results showed that the area under the ROC curve of the model in the training group and the validation group was 0.798(95％CI:0.730～0.856)and 0.744(95％CI:0.653～0.821).Once the score was greater than or equal to 3,it would be considered as a high-risk group for recurrence.Log-rank test showed that the cumulative recurrence rate of patients in high-risk group was higher than that in low-risk group(P＜0.001).Conclusion The risk scoring model constructed based on smoking/passive smoking,family history of stroke,tertiary hypertension and CSVD total load score＞2 has high accuracy in predicting the recurrence,which is helpful to guide clinical practice.
Ischemic strokeRecurrenceRisk factorsRisk scoring model
万方数据
维普
