Objective To explore the risk factors of pulmonary embolism(PE)in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(AECOPD),and to construct a column chart model to predict PE in patients.Methods A total of 261 AECOPD patients who were treated in our hospital from May 2020 to May 2023 were collected.CT pulmonary angiography(CTPA)was performed within 24 hours of admission,and the occurrence of PE was determined based on the CTPA results and grouped into the PE group and the non PE group.General information,disease data,blood routine and biochemical indicators were collected for single factor analysis.Logistic regression was applied to analyze and screen for factors related to PE in AECOPD patients.RMS package in R software was applied to draw a column chart model for predicting the occurrence of PE in patients,the area under receiver operating characteristic(AUC)and calibration curve were applied to evaluate the discrimination and accuracy.Results 78 AECOPD patients developed PE,with an incidence rate of 29.89%,there were statistical differences in the proportions of a history of surgery or fractures within 1 month,bed rest time≥1 week,complicated pulmonary arterial hypertension(PAH),and the PaCO2,D-D between the PE group and the non PE group(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that the main risk factors for PE in AECOPD patients included a history of surgery or fractures within 1 month,bed rest time≥1 week,presence of PAH,and high D-D level.Based on the above four factors,a column chart model was constructed to predict the occurrence of PE,ROC and calibration curve analysis showed that the AUC was 0.845(95%CI:0.795～0.896),and the calibration curve for predicting PE occurrence was close to the ideal curve,the goodness of fit HL test χ2=8.199,P=0.355.Conclusion The column chart model constructed based on a history of surgery or fractures within 1 month,bed rest time≥1 week,presence of PAH,and D-D level has strong predictive ability for PE in AECOPD patients.
Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseasePulmonary embolismRisk factorsColumn chart model
万方数据
维普
