Objective To investigate the risk factors of heart failure complication in elderly patients with severe pneumonia,and construct a risk prediction column-line diagram model to validate it.Methods Two hundred elderly patients with severe pneumonia admitted to our hospital from January 2019 to May 2023 were selected,and they were divided into the non-occurrence group(n=150)and the occurrence group(n=50)according to whether they had heart failure complications.The clinical data of the two groups of patients was compared,and the risk factors affecting the complication of heart failure in elderly patients with severe pneumonia were analyzed.A risk prediction column-line diagram model and verify the prediction efficacy was constructed.Results Comparison of age(>65 years),underlying heart disease,long-term bed-ridden,liver and kidney organ function health status,and procalcitoninogen(PCT)>5 ng/mL between the two groups were statistically significant(P<0.05).Multifactorial Logistic regression analyses of age(>65 years),underlying heart disease,long-term bed-ridden,liver and kidney organ function health status,and PCT>5 ng/mL were the independent risk factors for complicated heart failure in elderly patients with severe pneumonia.The constructed risk prediction column-line graph model with area under the ROC curve was 0.877(95%CI:0.809,0.930),which had good predictive efficacy.Conclusion The independent risk factors for complicated heart failure in elderly patients with severe pneumonia were age(>65 years),presence of underlying cardiac disease,prolonged bed rest,functional health status of the liver and kidney organs,and PCT>2 ng/mL,and these influences were found to have a high degree of accuracy and differentiation by constructing and validating the model.
Elderly Severe pneumoniaHeart failureRisk factorsRisk prediction column line graph model
万方数据
维普
