Objective To develop and assess a predictive model for moisture-related skin damage(PMASD)near intestinal stomas.Methods The clinical data of 369 patients undergoing enterostomy from January 2022 to June 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.Participants were categorized into a model development group(268 cases)and a validation group(101 cases).The development group was further divided into those with PMASD(91 cases)and those without(177 cases).Univariate analysis and Lasso variable selection informed the creation of a Logistic regression predictive model.The model's fit was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and externally validated with the validation group.Results Between-group comparisons of all variables in the modelling group showed statistically significant differences(P<0.05).The predictive model constructed by Logistic regression analysis after ANOVA streamlining and elimination Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.763,the correct rate of the predictive model was 90.51%.The total correct rate of external validation of the prediction model was 77.23%,with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.516 and an area under the ROC curve of 0.858(P<0.01).Conclusion The developed predictive model for PMASD around colostomy sites offers significant clinical utility.It enables healthcare professionals to promptly identify and manage skin damage,thereby reducing the risk of infections and other complications.
EnterostomyStoma-related moisture damagePredictive modelingNursing care
万方数据
维普
