Economic benefits of Torreya grandis ‘ Merrillii’ plantings
Technical and economic analysis methods, including dynamic analysis, Break-Even analysis, and One-Way Sensitivity analysis, were adopted to study production costs and economic indexes of Torreya grandis ' Merrillii' plantations that used 2+2 and 2+5 grafted seedlings over a 20-year period, in order to scientifically estimate feasibility and support scientific basis for Torreya grandis ' Merrillii' planting development. And according to the 7% benchmark discount rate to calculate the main dynamic economic indicators (such as NPV, IRR, TP etc.), design production and price earnings ratio of break-even point, and sales income and cost of production of uncertain factors on the economic production cycle in net present value influence. Results showed high plantation costs with a long period (about 10 years) needed to recoup the investment; however, economic benefits were favorable with an IRR of about 15%. The full fruit-bearing stage started after 15 years and lasted about 100 years, so in the long run economic benefits were excellent. The break-even point for a T. grandis 'Merrillii' plantation using 2+5 grafted seedlings was 31.6%, and its expected economic benefit was stable. If sales income fell 61.54% or production costs increased 160% during 20 a, development of Torreya grandis 'Merrillii' production would not feasible, but from 2009-2011 Torreya grandis 'Merrillii' market and production analysis of the actual situation, the possibility of this happening is minimal. Couclusion: T. grandis 'Merrillii' plantation risks due to markets, nature, technique, and policy are low, fund policies should be promoted to encourage breeding of big seedlings for establishing orchards, to enlarge the scope of small-scale loans, and to increase the repayment time on loans so as to promote development of the T. grandis 'Merrillii' industry.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
