Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of blue-green spatial pattern in the southern Jiangsu water network area
[Objective]The objective is to simulate and predict the multi-scenario development trend of the blue-green spatial pattern in the southern Jiangsu water network area,and explore scenario plans to promote sustainable development in the region.[Method]Taking the southern Wujiang District of Suzhou City,Jiangsu Province as sampling area,three scenarios were set up:natural development,ecological protection priority,and urban development priority.Based on CA-Markov model,a multi-scenario simulation analysis was conducted to simulate and analyze the changing trend of the blue-green spatial pattern in 2030.Morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)and landscape connectivity evaluation were used to interpret the ecological structure and characteristics of the blue-green spatial landscape.[Result]There were significant differences in the scale and pattern of the blue-green space under different development scenarios.Under the priority scenario of natural development and urban development,the area of the blue-green space showed an accelerated reduction trend,with a reduction of 3 626.37 and 7 145.74 hm2 respectively.The shape types of the core area and pore of the blue-green space changed sharply in the negative direction,resulting in an increase in fragmentation and a decrease in connectivity in the blue-green space.Compared with the priority scenarios of natural development and urban development,the priority scenario of ecological protection increased the area of the blue-green space by 2 904.30 and 6 423.67 hm2,and the core area of the blue-green space and other morphological types increased significantly,with a significant reduction in porosity,a reduction in the fragmentation of the blue-green space,and an increase in connectivity.[Conclusion]The priority scenarios of natural development and urban development have a negative impact on the blue-green space in the water network area,and the priority scenario of ecological protection has a significant effect on maintaining the stability of the area and pattern of the blue-green space and improving its connectivity.[Ch,4 fig.4 tab.23 ref.]
blue-green spaceCA-Markov modelmulti-scenario simulationMSPAwater network area
万方数据
维普
