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浙江省丽水市森林碳汇时空演变及对极端降水的响应

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
[目的]模拟并分析浙江省丽水市森林净生态系统生产力(NEP)时空演变趋势，揭示其对极端降水的响应机制，为丽水市森林固碳潜力时空评价提供科学依据。[方法]综合样地调查、遥感观测、InTEC模型，模拟3种气候情景(RCP2。6、RCP 4。5和RCP 8。5)下1979-2079年丽水市森林NEP时空格局，分析极端降水时空特征，构建结构方程模型，探讨极端降水对NEP的影响。[结果]①1979-2015年丽水市极端降水频率和强度呈增加趋势。未来气候情景下除RCP 2。6之外，RCP4。5和RCP8。5极端降水量、频率和强度仍持续增加，其中莲都区、缙云县以及景宁畲族自治县等地区极端降水事件上升趋势较强。②1979-2015年森林NEP呈增加趋势，增长速度为18。44 g·m-2·a-1。2016-2079年，3种气候情景下森林NEP均呈下降趋势，但碳汇总量呈上升趋势，最大NEP累积达10。97 Pg。③1979-2015年极端降水对NEP产生积极影响，2016-2079年除RCP 2。6影响不显著，其他2种情景下极端降水对NEP均产生消极影响，但RCP 8。5情景下极端降水较RCP 4。5对NEP的影响更小。[结论]丽水市森林碳汇能力较强，在未来气候情景下仍具有较高的碳汇潜力，然而极端降水对NEP的影响也不容忽视。图5参22
Spatiotemporal evolution of forest carbon sink in Lishui City and its response to extreme precipitation
[Objective]The objective is to simulate and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution trend of forest net ecosystem productivity(NEP)in Lishui City,and reveal its response mechanism to extreme precipitation,so as to provide data support for spatiotemporal assessment of forest carbon sink potential in Lishui.[Method]The spatiotemporal pattern of forest NEP in Lishui from 1979 to 2079 was simulated under three climate scenarios(RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,and RCP 8.5)by integrating plot survey,remote sensing observation and InTEC model.The spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation were analyzed and a structural equation model was constructed to explore the impact of extreme precipitation on NEP.[Result](1)The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Lishui during 1979-2015 showed an increasing trend.In the future climate scenario(except RCP 2.6),the extreme precipitation,frequency and intensity of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 would continue to increase,with a higher trend of extreme precipitation events in areas such as Liandu District,Jinyun County and Jingning She Autonomous County.(2)Forest NEP showed an increasing trend from 1979 to 2015,with a growth rate of 20.18 g·m-2·a-1.From 2016 to 2079,forest NEP showed a downward trend under the three climate scenarios,but the total carbon sink showed an increasing trend,with the maximum NEP accumulation reaching 10.97 Pg.(3)From 1979 to 2015,extreme precipitation had positive effects on NEP,while it had negative impacts on NEP under the other two scenarios(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)during 2016-2079,except for RCP 2.6 scenario under which extreme precipitation had no significant effect on NEP.However,extreme precipitation under RCP 8.5 had less impact on NEP than that under RCP 4.5.[Conclusion]Forests in Lishui demonstrate strong carbon sink capacity,and have high carbon sink potential under future climate scenarios.However,the impact of extreme precipitation on NEP should not be ignored.[Ch,5 fig.22 ref.]

extreme precipitationforest carbon sinknet ecosystem productivity(NEP)InTEC modelLishui City of Zhejiang Province

杨宁馨、毛方杰、杜华强、李雪建、孙佳倩、赵吟吟、郑兆东、腾先锋、叶峰峰

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浙江农林大学省部共建亚热带森林培育国家重点实验室,浙江杭州 311300

浙江农林大学浙江省森林生态系统碳循环与固碳减排重点实验室,浙江杭州 311300

浙江农林大学环境与资源学院,浙江杭州 311300

极端降水 森林碳汇 净生态系统生产力(NEP) InTEC模型 浙江省丽水市

百山祖国家公园科学研究项目浙江省科技厅"领雁"项目国家自然科学基金资助项目国家自然科学基金资助项目

2022JBGS022023C020353217178531901310

2024

10.11833/j.issn.2095-0756.20240141

浙江农林大学学报
浙江农林大学

浙江农林大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.929
ISSN：2095-0756
年,卷(期)：2024.41(5)