Impacts of climate change on the potential suitable area of Erigeron breviscapus in China
In order to explore the impact of climate changes on the potential ecological suitable area of Erigeron bre-viscapus,MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of E.breviscapus in China based on environ-mental factors such as E.breviscapus distribution data,climate,soil and terrain,and the key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of E.breviscapus were screened by Jackknife cutting method.The influence of cli-mate changes on the potential suitable area in China was analyzed using the spatial analysis tool in ArcGIS software.The results showed that the MaxEnt model could excellently simulate the potential distribution of E.breviscapus,an-nual temperature range,annual mean precipitation and altitude were the key environmental factors affecting the po-tential distribution of E.breviscapus;Compared with the baseline climate(1970-2000 year),the sustainable devel-opment path(SSP126)and intermediate development path(SSP245)scenarios reduced the area of high suitability of E.breviscapus by 21 229.17 km2 and 16 053.47 km2,respectively,only in the traditional development path(SSP585)scenario,the area of middle and high suitable regions increased by 27 749.03 km2.In the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios,the centroid of suitable regions shifted to the southeast,while in the SSP585 scenario,the cen-troid shifted to the northeast.In summary,the suitable area of E.breviscapus was mainly distributed in southwest China under all climate scenarios,but SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios reduced the potential suitable area of E.brevis-capus in China,and only SSP585 scenario was favorable to the distribution of E.breviscapus in China.
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万方数据
