台州市4类慢性病死亡及早死概率分析
Mortality and probability of premature death due to four chronic diseases in Taizhou City
吴丹红 1王伟霞 2王良友 3乔冬菊 3黄依璐 3张嫣3
作者信息
- 1. 温岭市疾病预防控制中心慢性病防制科,浙江 温岭 317500
- 2. 浙江省中医药大学,浙江 杭州 310000
- 3. 台州市疾病预防控制中心,浙江 台州 318000
- 折叠
摘要
目的 了解浙江省台州市恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心脑血管疾病和慢性呼吸系统疾病的死亡率和早死概率,为完善慢性病防控措施提供参考.方法 通过台州市慢性病信息管理系统收集2019-2022年台州市户籍居民4类慢性病死亡资料,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率(采用2020年第七次全国人口普查数据标化)和早死概率,采用年度变化百分比(APC)分析死亡率和早死概率的变化趋势;采用2025年和2030年早死概率的预测值和目标值评价达标情况.结果 2019-2022年台州市4类慢性病死亡119 899例,粗死亡率为494.48/10万,标化死亡率为410.68/10万,未见明显变化趋势(APC=4.680%和-2.795%,均P>0.05);早死概率从10.39%下降至8.69%(APC=-6.027%,P<0.05).男性粗死亡率和标化死亡率分别为562.13/10万和461.67/10万,高于女性的424.08/10万和353.81/10万;农村粗死亡率和标化死亡率分别为499.65/10万和429.20/10万,高于城市的480.52/10万和365.68/10万(均P<0.05).2019-2022年女性和农村早死概率呈下降趋势(APC=-8.210%和-7.558%,均P<0.05);恶性肿瘤标化死亡率和早死概率呈下降趋势(APC=-6.090%和-8.019%,均P<0.05);糖尿病粗死亡率呈上升趋势(APC=18.654%,P<0.05).2025年和2030年4类慢性病早死概率预测值分别为7.27%和5.40%,均低于目标值10.02%和8.77%.结论 2019-2022年台州市4类慢性病的死亡率无明显变化趋势,农村男性是防控重点人群;早死概率呈下降趋势,可实现2025年和2030年的目标值.
Abstract
Objective To understand the mortality and probability of premature death due to malignant tumors,cardio-cerebrovascular diseases,diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in Taizhou City,Zhejiang Province,so as to provide the basis for the improvement of chronic diseases prevention and control strategies.Methods The death data of the four chronic diseases among local residents in Taizhou City from 2019 to 2022 were collected through Taizhou Chron-ic Disease Information Management System,and the crude mortality,standardized mortality(standardized by the data of the seventh national population census in 2020)and probability of premature death were calculated.The trends in mortality and probability of premature death were analyzed using annual percent change(APC).The attainment of prob-ability of premature death due to the four chronic diseases were evaluated using the target values and predicted val-ues in 2025 and 2030.Results There were 119 899 deaths from the four chronic diseases in Taizhou City from 2019 to 2022,with the crude mortality of 494.48/105 and the standardized mortality of 410.68/105,which was no sig-nificant changing trend(APC=4.680%and-2.795%,both P>0.05).The probability of premature death decreased from 10.39%to 8.69%(APC=-6.027%,P<0.05).The crude mortality and standardized mortality in males were higher than those in females(562.13/105 vs.424.08/105;461.67/105 vs.353.81/105;both P<0.05).The crude mortality and standard-ized mortality in rural areas were higher than those in urban areas(499.65/105 vs.480.52/105;429.20/105 vs.365.68/105;both P<0.05).The probability of premature death in women and rural residents showed downward trends(APC=-8.210%and-7.558%,both P<0.05)from 2019 to 2022.The standardized mortality and probability of premature death due to malignant tumors showed downward trends(APC=-6.090%and-8.019%,both P<0.05).The crude mortal-ity of diabetes showed an upward trend(APC=18.654%,P<0.05).The predicted values for probability of premature death due to due to the four chronic diseases in 2025 and 2030 were 7.27%and 5.40%,respectively,and were low-er than the target values of 10.02%and 8.77%.Conclusions From 2019 to 2022,there was no significant trends in the mortality of four chronic diseases in Taizhou City,with rural men being the key population for prevention and control.The probability of premature death showed a downward trend,and it was expected to achieve the target in 2025 and 2030.
关键词
恶性肿瘤/糖尿病/心脑血管疾病/慢性呼吸系统疾病/死亡率/早死概率Key words
malignant tumors/cardio-cerebrovascular diseases/diabetes/chronic respiratory diseases/mortality/probability of premature death引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据