预防医学2024,Vol.36Issue(6) :514-517,522.DOI:10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2024.06.013

2008-2022年赤峰市丙型病毒性肝炎发病的年龄、时期、队列趋势分析

Trends in age-,period-and cohort-specific incidence of hepatitis C in Chifeng City from 2008 to 2022

李文军 李慧 杨景元 杨虹 高雅 杲柏呈 李瑶 张琦玥 邱亚飞
预防医学2024,Vol.36Issue(6) :514-517,522.DOI:10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2024.06.013

2008-2022年赤峰市丙型病毒性肝炎发病的年龄、时期、队列趋势分析

Trends in age-,period-and cohort-specific incidence of hepatitis C in Chifeng City from 2008 to 2022

李文军 1李慧 2杨景元 2杨虹 2高雅 2杲柏呈 2李瑶 2张琦玥 2邱亚飞3
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作者信息

  • 1. 内蒙古医科大学公共卫生学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010110;内蒙古自治区疾病预防控制中心(内蒙古自治区预防医学科学院),内蒙古 呼和浩特 010080
  • 2. 内蒙古自治区疾病预防控制中心(内蒙古自治区预防医学科学院),内蒙古 呼和浩特 010080
  • 3. 赤峰市疾病预防控制中心,内蒙古 赤峰 024005
  • 折叠

摘要

目的 了解2008-2022年内蒙古自治区赤峰市丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)发病趋势,为制定丙肝防控措施提供依据.方法 通过传染病信息报告管理系统收集2008-2022年赤峰市丙肝报告病例资料,计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析丙肝发病率的时间变化趋势,采用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列对丙肝发病率的影响.结果 2008-2022年赤峰市丙肝年均报告发病率为59.13/10万;2008-2018年发病率呈上升趋势(APC=9.405%,P<0.05),2018-2022年发病率呈下降趋势(APC=-17.475%,P<0.05),但总体无明显变化趋势(AAPC=0.937%,P>0.05).年龄-时期-队列模型分析结果显示,以40~44岁为对照,0~4岁和45~84岁丙肝发病风险高于对照组,40~79岁丙肝发病风险随着年龄增长呈上升趋势;以2008-2012年为对照,2008-2022年丙肝发病风险呈先上升后下降趋势,2013-2017年发病风险高于对照组,2018-2022年发病风险低于对照组;以1968-1972年出生队列为对照,丙肝发病风险呈先上升后下降趋势,1953-1977年出生队列的发病风险高于其他出生队列.结论 2008-2022年赤峰市丙肝发病风险总体呈下降趋势,随着年龄增加发病风险递增,应加强老年人和高危出生队列的筛查和健康教育.

Abstract

Objective To explore incidence trend of hepatitis C in Chifeng City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2008 to 2022,so as to provide the basis for formulating prevention and control measures for hepatitis C.Methods Data of reported hepatitis C cases in Chifeng City from 2008 to 2022 was collected through the Infectious Disease Infor-mation Reporting Management System.Trends in incidence of hepatitis C were analyzed using annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC).Impact of age,period and birth cohort on the risk of developing hep-atitis C were analyzed by an age-period-cohort model.Results The annual average reported incidence rate of hepatitis C in Chifeng City was 59.13/105 from 2008 to 2022.The incidence showed an upward trend from 2008 to 2018(APC=9.405%,P<0.05)and a downward trend from 2018 to 2022(APC=-17.475%,P<0.05),but the overall trend was not statistically significant(AAPC=0.937%,P>0.05).The age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the incidence risks of hepatitis C in the residents aged 0 to 4 years and 45 to 84 years were higher than those in the residents aged 40 to 44 years(the control group).The incidence risk of hepatitis C increased with age from 40 to 79 years.Compared with 2008-2012,the incidence risk of hepatitis C showed an increasing trend followed by a decline in 2008-2022.The incidence risk was higher in 2013-2017 and lower in 2018-2022 than in 2008-2012.The incidence risk of hepatitis C showed an increasing trend followed by a decreasing trend by using the birth cohort from 1968 to 1972 as the control.The birth cohort from 1953 to 1977 had a higher incidence risk of hepatitis C than other birth cohorts.Conclusions The overall incidence of hepatitis C in Chifeng City from 2008 to 2022 appeared a tendency towards a decline,and the incidence risk increased with age.Screening and health education for the elderly and high-risk birth cohorts should be strengthened.

关键词

丙型病毒性肝炎/年龄-时期-队列模型/发病率

Key words

hepatitis C/age-period-cohort model/incidence

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基金项目

内蒙古自治区科技计划(2020GG0218)

出版年

2024
预防医学
浙江省预防医学会

预防医学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.002
ISSN:2096-5087
参考文献量14
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