首页|2004-2020年浙江省10岁以下儿童乙型病毒性肝炎发病的年龄-时期-队列分析

2004-2020年浙江省10岁以下儿童乙型病毒性肝炎发病的年龄-时期-队列分析

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目的 分析2004-2020年浙江省<10岁儿童乙型病毒性肝炎(乙肝)发病随年龄-时期-出生队列的变化趋势,评价浙江省儿童乙肝防控实施效果.方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统收集2004-2020年浙江省<10岁儿童乙肝发病资料,采用年龄-时期-队列模型分析<10岁儿童乙肝发病趋势.结果 2004-2020年浙江省<10岁儿童乙肝发病率由12.91/10万下降至0.61/10万,下降95.24%.随着年龄增长,乙肝发病率呈下降趋势.以2012年为参照,随着时期推移,<10岁儿童乙肝发病风险下降,时期率比从2004年的4.546(95%CI:3.322~6.220)下降至2020年的0.277(95%CI:0.161~0.478).以2008年出生队列为参照,随着出生时间推移,乙肝发病风险下降,队列率比从1995年出生队列的25.535(95%CI:15.105~43.166)下降至2020年出生队列的0.135(95%CI:0.038~0.475).结论 2004-2020年浙江省<10岁儿童乙肝发病率呈下降趋势,且乙肝发病风险随年龄增长、出生时间推移而降低.
Age-period-cohort analysis of the incidence of hepatitis B among children aged under 10 years in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2020
Objective To investigate the trend of hepatitis B incidence among children under 10 years in Zhejiang Prov-ince from 2004 to 2020 with age,period and birth cohort,so as to provide the basis for evaluating the implementation of hepatitis B prevention and control measures for children in Zhejiang Province.Methods Data of hepatitis B inci-dence among children under 10 years in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2020 were collected through the Infectious Dis-ease Reporting Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System.The trend in hepatitis B incidence was analyzed using an age-period-cohort model.Results The incidence of hepatitis B among children un-der 10 years in Zhejiang Province decreased from 12.91/105 in 2004 to 0.61/105 in 2020,with a reduction of 95.24%.The incidence showed an decreasing trend with the increase of age.Compared with 2012,the risk of hepatitis B inci-dence among children under 10 years appeared a tendency towards a decline with time,with the period rate ratio de-creased from 4.546(95%CI:3.322-6.220)in 2004 to 0.277(95%CI:0.161-0.478)in 2020.Compared with the 2008 co-hort,the risk of hepatitis B incidence appeared a tendency towards a decline with cohort,with the cohort rate ratio de-creased from 25.535(95%CI:15.105-43.166)in 1995 to 0.135(95%CI:0.038-0.475)in 2020.Conclusions The inci-dence of hepatitis B among children aged under 10 years in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2020 showed a downward trend.The risk of hepatitis B incidence decreased with increasing age and advancing birth cohort.

hepatitis Bage-period-cohort modelchildrenincidence trend

李傅冬、何凡、何寒清、章涛、古雪、俞敏

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浙江省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,浙江 杭州 310051

浙江省传染病疫苗与预防控制研究重点实验室,浙江 杭州 310051

浙江省疾病预防控制局,浙江 杭州 310006

浙江省疾病预防控制中心,浙江 杭州 310051

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乙肝 年龄-时期-队列模型 儿童 发病趋势

浙江省重点研发计划项目

2021C03038

2024

预防医学
浙江省预防医学会

预防医学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.002
ISSN:2096-5087
年,卷(期):2024.36(9)