Objective To construct a prediction model of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)in middle-aged and el-derly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM),so as to provide basis for early screening and prevention of T2DM complicated with NAFLD.Methods Patients aged 45 years and above and diagnosed with T2DM in Karamay Hospital of People's Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2021 were collected as the study subjects.The data of gener-al demographic characteristics and biochemical test results were collected.The patients were randomly divided into train-ing group(n=3 241)and validation group(n=1 389)according to the ratio of 7∶3.LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression model were used to select predictive factors.The nomograph model for prediction of NAFLD risk in T2DM patients was established.The predictive value of the model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteris-tic(ROC),adjusted curve and decision clinical analysis.Results Totally 4 630 T2DM cases were included,including 1 279 cases(27.62%)complicated with NAFLD.LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression analysis identified gender,age,diastolic blood pressure,body mass index,alanine transaminase,triglycerides,low density lipoprotein choles-terol and platelet count as risk prediction factors for NAFLD in T2DM patients.The area under the ROC curve was 0.823(95%CI:0.814-0.832)for the training group and 0.809(95%CI:0.799-0.818)for the validation group,and Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fitting effect(P>0.05).Decision curve analysis showed higher net clinical benefit of using the predictive model to predict NAFLD risk when the risk threshold probability was 0.27 to 0.85.Conclusion The nomo-gram model established has a good predictive value for the risk of NAFLD in T2DM patients aged 45 years and above.
type 2 diabetes mellitusnon-alcoholic fatty liver diseasepredictornomogram
万方数据
维普
