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基于模糊聚类分析的高速公路全寿命周期成本预测研究

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推行全生命周期成本管理与建管养一体化有利于提升高速公路投资效益和社会效益,成本预测是设计与养护方案优化的基础.在大中修样本数量有限的情形下,应用模糊聚类分析法,结合高速公路专项项目特征指标预测高速公路路基、路面及结构物大中修费用;建立寿命周期成本模型,根据建设成本、养护成本、用户成本、环境成本等寿命周期成本对设计方案进行比选,并进行实例分析,避免根据单纯建设成本最低和定性分析进行方案选择带来的后期维护及运营成本偏高的缺陷,研究成果对设计方案优化和建管养一体化有指导作用.
Research on Life Cycle Cost Prediction of Expressway Based on Fuzzy Cluster Analysis
The integration of life-cycle cost management and construction,management and maintenance is beneficial to improve the investment benefit and social benefit of expressway,and cost prediction is the basis of optimization of design and maintenance scheme.In the case of limited samples of major and medium-sized repairs,the fuzzy cluster analysis method is applied to predict the cost of major and medium-sized repairs of expressway subgrade,pavement and structures in combination with the characteristic indexes of expressway special projects.The life cycle cost model is established,and the design schemes are compared and selected according to the life cycle costs such as construction cost,maintenance cost,user cost and environmental cost,and an example is analyzed to avoid the defects of high later maintenance and operation cost caused by scheme selection based on simple construction cost minimum and qualitative analysis.The research results have a guiding role in design scheme optimization and integration of construction,management and maintenance.

life cycle costfuzzy cluster analysisspecial expensesscheme optimization

陈琳、何寿奎、葛明、郑强、霍典

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广西新祥高速公路有限公司,广西南宁 530010

重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆 400074

广西交通投资集团有限公司崇左高速公路运营有限公司,广西崇左 532200

福建省交通工程造价管理站,福建福州 350001

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寿命周期成本 模糊聚类分析 专项费用 方案优化

重庆市社会科学规划项目重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目

2020YBJJ4918SKGH049

2024

公路工程
湖南省交通科学研究院

公路工程

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.942
ISSN:1674-0610
年,卷(期):2024.49(2)