Dynamic Impact of International Oil Price Jumps on China's Agricultural Sector
Against a backdrop of increasingly complex international situations,ongoing challenges in energy strategy transformation,and a significantly low self-sufficiency rate of domestic agricultural products,this paper in-vestigates the impact of international oil price jumps on China's agricultural sector through the lens of commodity and stock markets.The findings indicate that current oil price jumps significantly reduce the returns on agricultural products and agriculture-related stocks,while the impact of previous oil price jumps shows the opposite effect.These conclusions hold true even after controlling for market linkages and other potential factors.Given the strong financial attributes of both commodity and stock markets,this result suggests that international oil price jumps en-hance market speculation,thereby dynamically impacting domestic agricultural products and agriculture-related stock markets.Therefore,until risk warning and regulatory mechanisms are perfected and the energy structure transformation is substantially complete,vigilance against extreme fluctuations in international oil prices is necessa-ry.Moreover,in the agriculture sector,which is crucial for national welfare,a gradual and orderly opening of cap-ital markets is essential to ensure relative stability in the agricultural product market and agriculture-related stock markets.
international oil price jumpsagricultural sectorcommoditiesstock market
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
