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ETF市场定价偏差理论研究及其实证检验

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我国ETF采用一级市场申赎和二级市场交易并存的市场模式,且两个市场间定价偏差长期存在.为了探究ETF定价偏差的形成原因与机制,本文构建一个基于信息理论的均衡模型,分析了影响定价偏差的主要因素及其作用方向.同时,本文利用我国A股市场的股票型ETF数据,对理论模型结论进行了实证检验.研究发现,ETF市场定价偏差程度随着成分股特质性风险和ETF跟踪误差的增加而上升,而ETF市场流动性和市场信息交易量则会对定价偏差产生负向影响.这些结论在多种稳健性检验下仍然有效.本文的研究为深入理解ETF市场的定价机制提供了新的视角和理论支持,对于促进和完善我国ETF市场的发展具有一定的指导价值.
ETF trading in China adopts a dual-market model of coexistence of primary market redemption and secondary market trading,and the pricing deviation between the two markets persists for a long time.To explore the reasons and mechanisms for the formation of ETF pricing deviation,this paper constructs an equilibrium model based on the information theory and analyzes the main factors affecting pricing deviation and their directions.At the same time,this paper uses the data of equity ETFs in China's A-share market to empirically test the predictions of the theoretical model.The research finds that the degree of ETF market pricing deviation increases with higher constituent stock idiosyncratic risk and greater ETF tracking error,while the ETF market liquidity and market information trading volume have a negative impact on pricing deviation.These conclusions are still valid under various robustness tests.This paper provides a new perspective and theoretical basis for an in-depth understanding of the pricing mechanism of the ETF market and has a certain guiding significance for promoting and improving the development of China's ETF market.

ETFpricing deviationinformationidiosyncratic riskliquidity

周博伦、王英中、王一鸣

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北京大学经济学院,北京 100871

深圳大学经济学院,广东深圳 518060

ETF 定价偏差 信息 特质性风险 流动性

2024

证券市场导报
深圳证券交易所综合研究所

证券市场导报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.331
ISSN:1005-1589
年,卷(期):2024.(9)