Constructing Prediction Models for Small for Gestational Age Based on Multimodal Clinical and Ultrasonographic Data
[Objective]To explore the predictive value of multimodal clinical and ultrasonographic data in first-and second-trimester for small for gestational age(SGA),so as to build and internally validate SGA prediction models based on multiple machine learning algorithms.[Methods]This retrospective study enrolled 1,307 pregnant women with single-ton pregnancies,diagnosed SGA according to INTERGROWTH-21st fetal growth criteria,and collected multimodal clini-cal data including general clinical information,biochemical test data,and prenatal ultrasound screening data.Extreme gra-dient boosting(XGBoost)algorithm was used to calculate the importance of variables.Seven machine learning algorithms were used to construct and internally verify the prediction models.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)was used as the main indicator to measure the prediction performance and used to compare predictive perfor-mance between models with the sensitivity at a 10%false positive rate.[Results]The optimal prediction model built based on general clinical information and biochemical test data had an AUC of 0.70,95%CI(0.609,0.791)and a sensitivity of 0.38,95%CI(0.236,0.519).The optimal prediction model based on prenatal ultrasound screening data was better than the former,with an AUC of 0.77,95%CI(0.687,0.858)and a sensitivity of 0.62,95%CI(0.457,0.743).The two data sets were combined to form the multimodal clinical dataset,and the performance of the best prediction model was further improved with an AUC of 0.91,95%CI(0.851,0.972)and a sensitivity of 0.88,95%CI(0.745,0.947),and the model calibration showed good goodness of fit.[Conclusion]By using machine learning algorithms to fully explore the predictive value of different types of clinical data for SGA in first-and second-trimester,this study proves the absolute advantages of multimodal clinical data for SGA screening,and provides an accurate and effective reference for personalized management of pregnant women.
small for gestational ageprediction modelmachine learningfirst-trimestersecond-trimester
万方数据
维普
