Prediction of potential suitable distribution areas of oak wilt pathogen Bretziella fagacearum in China under climate change
In order to reduce the risk of outbreak of oak wilt under climate change,based on the existing distribution data of fungal pathogen Bretziella fagacearum,the main bioclimate variables affecting its distribution were selected,and the potential suitable distribution areas of B.fagacearum in China under future climate conditions(SSP126 and SSP585)were predicted with optimized MaxEnt model.The re-sults indicated that the maximum temperature of warmest month,mean temperature of driest quarter,an-nual precipitation,and precipitation of driest month were the main bioclimate variables affecting the dis-tribution of B.fagacearum.The mean value of area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was over than 0.90,and the model prediction results were reliable.Under current climate conditions,the suitable distribution area of B.fagacearum was about 1.39×106 km2,accounting for 14.48％of the total area of China,and the highly suitable distribution areas were mainly in northern Hunan Province,cen-tral and southern Zhejiang Province,southeastern Hubei Province,western Jiangxi Province,and north-ern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.Under the future climate conditions(SSP126 and SSP585),the suitable distribution area of B.fagacearum would increase,in particular,the highly suitable areas,as the highest degree of climate anomaly occurs in high suitability areas.Furthermore,the centroid move-ment track of B.fagacearum is within the scope of Hunan Province,and there is a trend of moving to the north.
climate changeBretziella fagacearumMaxEnt modelsuitable distribution areacentroid
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
