To inform economic investment decisions for the prevention and control of quarantine pests like the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta,we evaluated the potential control costs,which are a significant indicator of the potential damage losses from S.invicta in China.Using the pest risk analysis under current and future climate conditions,we introduced the concepts of suitability coefficient and suitable area ratio.By collecting and organizing habitat data,such as arable land,orchards,tea planta-tions,and urban parks and green spaces,where S.invicta could spread,we constructed a model for evaluating the potential control costs of S.invicta using@RISK.The results showed that the potential control costs for the 12 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)where S.invicta has already occurred ranged from 132 million to 395 million yuan within a 90％confidence interval.For the 21 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)where S.invicta could potentially occur,the poten-tial control costs ranged from 92.65 billion to 184.12 billion yuan,with total potential control costs rang-ing from 92.918 billion and 184.391 billion yuan,all with the 90％confidence interval.The most criti-cal variable affecting the potential control cost model for S.invicta is the control cost per unit area.
关键词
红火蚁/@RISK软件/当前发生防控成本/潜在发生防控成本/潜在防控成本
Key words
Solenopsis invicta/@RISK software/current control cost/potential occurrence control cost/potential control cost
维普
万方数据