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儿童孤独症谱系障碍影响因素分析及预测模型构建

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目的 探讨儿童发生孤独症谱系障碍(autism spectrum disorder,ASD)的影响因素并构建预测模型.方法 选取2021年7月至2022年7月于湖州市妇幼保健院就诊的116例ASD患儿纳入研究组,另选取同期于本院健康体检儿童120名纳入对照组.采用Logistic回归分析探讨儿童发生ASD的危险因素并构建预测模型,分析预测模型对儿童发生ASD的预测价值.结果 Logistic回归分析结果显示,父亲生育年龄≥30岁、母亲生育年龄≥30岁、家庭经济状况较差、孕期有被动吸烟史、孕期患病、孕期饮食不当、孕期伴焦虑/抑郁、母亲职业有毒物接触史均为儿童发生ASD的危险因素(P<0.05).据此构建的预测模型拟合效果较好(x2=6.219,P=0.410),预测儿童发生ASD的曲线下面积为0.903(95%CI:0.857~0.907),敏感度和特异性分别为81.90%和84.17%.结论 儿童ASD与父母生育年龄、家庭经济状况、孕期被动吸烟、孕期患病、孕期饮食不当、孕期伴焦虑/抑郁、母亲职业有毒物接触史等密切相关,应据此给予针对性预防对策,以减少儿童ASD的发生.
Analysis of influencing factors of autism spectrum disorder in children and construction of predictive model
Objective To explore the influencing factors of autism spectrum disorder(ASD)in children and construct a predictive model.Methods A total of 116 children with ASD who received medical treatment in Huzhou Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital from July 2021 to July 2022 were included in study group,and 120 healthy children who underwent physical examination in the hospital during the same period were included in control group.Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors of ASD in children,and the predictive model was constructed to analyze the prediction value for the occurrence of ASD in children.Results Logistic regression analysis showed that paternal age ≥ 30 years old,maternal age≥ 30 years old,poor family economic status,history of passive smoking during pregnancy,illness during pregnancy,improper diet during pregnancy,anxiety/depression during pregnancy,and maternal occupational toxic exposure history were all risk factors for ASD in children(P<0.05).The predictive model was well fitted(x2=6.219,P=0.410).The area under the curve for predicting ASD was 0.903(95%CI:0.857-0.907),and the sensitivity and specificity were 81.90%and 84.17%,respectively.Conclusion The occurrence of ASD in children are closely related to their parents'childbearing age,family economic status,passive smoking during pregnancy,illness during pregnancy,improper diet during pregnancy,anxiety/depression during pregnancy,and maternal occupational toxic exposure history.Therefore,targeted preventive measures should be given accordingly to reduce the incidence of children's ASD.

Autism spectrum disorderChildrenRisk factorPredictive modelPreventive measures

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湖州市妇幼保健院儿童保健科,浙江湖州 313000

孤独症谱系障碍 儿童 危险因素 预测模型 预防对策

浙江省湖州市科技计划项目

2020GY15

2024

中国现代医生
中国医学科学院

中国现代医生

影响因子:1.571
ISSN:1673-9701
年,卷(期):2024.62(25)