首页|乙型肝炎肝硬化发生急性肾损伤的影响因素及列线图预测模型构建

乙型肝炎肝硬化发生急性肾损伤的影响因素及列线图预测模型构建

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目的:探究乙型肝炎肝硬化发生急性肾损伤(AKI)的影响因素,构建列线图预测模型.方法:收集 397 例乙型肝炎肝硬化患者的临床资料,根据是否发生AKI将患者分AKI组(n =82)和非AKI组(n =315),比较两组患者的临床资料差异,采用多因素Logistic回归分析肝硬化AKI的影响因素.基于多因素分析结果构建列线图预测模型并验证,绘制预测模型校准曲线和ROC曲线下面积(AUC).结果:研究共纳入397 例乙型肝炎肝硬化患者,82 例发生AKI,发生率约为 20.7%.与非AKI组比较,AKI组患者在患病年龄≥50 岁、失代偿期、腹水、上消化道出血、使用利尿剂和高Child-Pugh分级的发生率高,TBil、PT和PCT水平较高,而Alb和血清Na水平较低,差异具有统计学意义(均P<0.05).多因素分析显示,Alb和血清Na为乙型肝炎肝硬化AKI的保护因素(OR =0.850 和0.581,均P<0.05),而失代偿期、腹水、TBil升高、PT延长、PCT升高和Child-Pugh B/C级为危险因素(OR =3.398、7.013、1.146、1.314、1.969 和26.230,均P<0.05).列线图模型预测肝硬化AKI的AUC为 0.901,校准曲线显示预测值与实测值基本相符.结论:失代偿期、腹水、TBil、PT和PCT水平升高、Alb和血清Na水平降低、Child-Pugh B/C级为乙型肝炎肝硬化发生AKI的独立危险因素.研究建立的列线图预测模型对乙型肝炎肝硬化AKI具有较好的预测准确度.
Influencing factors of acute kidney injury in hepatitis B cirrhosis and construction of a nomogram prediction model
Objective:To investigate the influential factors of acute kidney injury(AKI)in hepatitis B cirrhosis and develop a nomogram prediction model.Methods:The study collected clinical data from 397 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis.The patients were divided into two groups based on the occurrence of AKI:the cirrhosis AKI group(n =82)and the cirrhosis non-AKI group(n =315).The clinical data between the two groups was compared,and multi-factor logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of AKI in cirrhosis.Results:The study included397 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis,82 of whom developed AKI,resulting in an incidence of 20.7%.The AKI group had a higher incidence of decompensation,ascites,upper gastrointestinal bleeding and diuretic use at the age of≥50 years,higher levels of TBil,PT and PCT,and lower levels of ALB and serum Na,and higher Child-Pugh grade compared with the non-AKI group,with statistical significance(all P<0.05).Multi-factor analysis showed that ALB and serum Na were protective factors for AKI in hepatitis B cirrhosis(OR =0.850 and0.581,both P<0.05),while decompensation,ascites,elevated TBil,prolonged PT,elevated PCT,and Child-Pugh B/C grade were risk factors(OR =3.398,7.013,1.146,1.314,1.969,and 26.230,all P<0.05).The nomogram prediction model predicted the AUC of liver cirrhosis to be 0.901 with the calibration curve showing that the predicted value was consistent with the measured value.Conclusion:Decompensation,ascites,increased TBil,PT and PCT levels,and decreased ALB and serum Na levels,and Child-Pugh B/C grade were identified as independent risk factors for AKI in hepatitis B cirrhosis.The nomogram prediction model established in this study demonstrated good accuracy in predicting AKI in hepatitis B cirrhosis.

hepatitis B cirrhosisacute kidney injuryinfluencing factorsnomogram prediction model

林尚明、刘林华、刘蒙、贺劲松、魏春山

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广州中医药大学第四临床医学院(广东 深圳,518033)

深圳市中医院

乙型肝炎肝硬化 急性肾损伤 影响因素 列线图预测模型

2024

中西医结合肝病杂志
中国中西医结合学会,湖北中医学院

中西医结合肝病杂志

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.908
ISSN:1005-0264
年,卷(期):2024.34(3)
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