Prediction of Suitable Area and Analysis of Dominant Environmental Factors of Swertia in Qinghai Province
Objective:To understand the potential geographical distribution charaeteristics of Swertia in Qinghai province under dif-ferent climate changes and to understand the dominant climatic factors affecting the distribution.Methods:Using the ArcGIS and MaxEnt models,121 geographical points and 19 climatic variables of Swertia were used to simulate and analyze the main climate factors affecting the distribution of Swertia,the distribution pattern of Swertia under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios in 2050s and 2070s was predicted.Results:The AUC values of both training set and test set were all 0.899,the model simulated the current potential distribution area with good reliability.Swertia were mainly distributed in the east and southeast of Qinghai province,including Haidong,Yushu and other places.Compared with the current climate,the distribution area of Swertia in Qinghai province will increase under different climate scenarios in the future,and the distribution area will gradually move to the west.The main climate variables affecting the distribution of Swertia in Qinghai province were annual precipitation,average temperature in the coldest quarter,seasonal variation of precipitation,iso-therm,precipitation in the driest quarter,minimum temperature in the coldest month and precipitation in the warmest quarter.Conclu-sion:The Swertia has the potential to expand the biogeographical range.Precipitation and average temperature are the key factors limit-ing the distribution of Swertia.The results provide a theoretical basis for the conservation of Swertia resources and the formulation of measures for introduction and domestication of Swertia.
SwertiaMaxEnt modelPotential distribution areaClimatic factors
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