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黄河三角洲县域经济韧性时空演变及障碍度研究

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识别黄河三角洲县域的经济韧性水平及其障碍性因素,有利于推动县域高质量发展.以黄河三角洲县域为研究对象,运用DPSIR模型与双向评价指标体系法构建经济韧性动态双向评价指标体系,通过熵权法、Dagum基尼系数、探索性空间数据分析法、障碍度模型探究2011-2020 年黄河三角洲县域经济韧性的时空分异特征与障碍因素.结果表明:①2011-2017年县域整体的经济韧性呈现波动上升趋势,2018-2020 年呈现先下降后上升趋势;②各县域单元的经济韧性呈上升趋势,经济韧性差距逐渐扩大,韧性得分排名变化不明显;③经济韧性空间分布没有显著差异,经济韧性从随机分布转向空间集聚,西北部韧性水平整体低于东南部韧性水平,各时点韧性均值主要处于中等韧性;④经济韧性基尼系数均在0.2 以下,区域内经济状况高度平均;经济韧性差异的来源,首先是组间差异,其次是超变密度差异,最后是组内差异;⑤各组经济韧性的主要障碍因子相似,集中在资源水平、贫富差距、技术进步、消费潜力准则层.
Research on the spatial-temporal evolution and obstacle degree of county economic resilience in the Yellow River Delta
The identification of economic resilience levels and its obstacle factors in the counties of the Yellow River Delta was es-sential for promoting high-quality county development.Taking the Yellow River Delta county as the research object,this paper con-structed the dynamic two-way evaluation index system of county economic resilience in this area by DPSIR model and two-way evalu-ation index system method,and analyzed the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and obstacle factors of economic resilience from 2011 to 2020 through the entropy method,Dagum Gini coefficient,ESDA and obstacle degree model.The results showed that:①The economic resilience of the county as a whole showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2017,followed by a decline and subse-quent upward trend from 2018 to 2020.②The economic resilience of each county unit exhibited a consistent upward trend,accompanied by a gradual widening of the gap between their levels of economic resilience.However,there was no significant alteration in the ranking order of economic resilience.③There was no significant disparity in the spatial distribution of economic resilience,with a transition ob-served from random dispersion to spatial concentration,and the resilience level in the northwest generally exhibited lower values com-pared to that in the southeast,with a predominant medium mean value observed at each time point.④The Gini coefficients of economic resilience were all below 0.2,indicated a high level of average economic conditions in this region.The sources of variation in economic resilience were firstly the inter-regional,followed by the hyper-variable density,and finally the intra-regional.⑤The main obstacle factors of each group were similar,primarily concentrated within the criterion layer of resources level,wealth disparity,technological ad-vancement and consumption potential.

economic resiliencetwo-way evaluation index systemspatio-temporal evolutionDagum Gini coefficientobstacle degreeYellow River Delta

张梅霞、李颖、李芳

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山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安 271018

经济韧性 时空演化 双向评价指标体系 Dagum基尼系数 障碍度 黄河三角洲

国家自然科学基金

42177027

2024

资源开发与市场
四川省自然资源科学研究院

资源开发与市场

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:0.581
ISSN:1005-8141
年,卷(期):2024.40(1)
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