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中国分布式能源的影响因素实证分析——基于空间门限面板模型

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分布式能源具有低碳、利用效率高的特点,大力发展分布式能源对于减少二氧化碳排放和控制环境污染具有重要的现实意义;对分布式能源的影响因素进行研究,能够为中国有关部门制定合理的能源政策提供实证支撑.基于2006-2020年中国省域面板数据,利用空间门限面板模型研究了中国分布式能源的空间关联性及其影响因素的非线性门限效应.研究发现:①中国分布式能源存在正向的空间关联性,呈现出"高—高"和"低—低"的聚类形态.②中国分布式能源的发展存在两区制效应.人均GDP超过43 736元的省份,基础设施投资和能源补贴对分布式能源的促进效应更加明显;技术进步和对外石油依存的影响由不显著变为正向显著;国际油价和产业结构的影响由负向显著转为正向显著;能源结构的影响由负向显著变为不显著;城镇化的影响由不显著变为负向显著.
Empirical analysis of the influencing factors of distributed energy in China——Based on spatial threshold panel model
Distributed energy has the advantages of low carbon and high utilization efficiency,and the vigorous development of dis-tributed energy is of great practical significance for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and controlling environmental pollution.Study on influencing factors of distributed energy can provide empirical support for the energy departments in China to formulate reasonable poli-cies.Based on panel data of Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2020,this study used a spatial threshold panel model to investigate the spa-tial correlation and nonlinear threshold effects of influencing factors on distributed energy in China.The research findings showed that:①There existed a positive spatial correlation in distributed energy in China,showing a clustering pattern of'high-high'and'low-low'.②The development of distributed energy in China exhibited two regional effects.For provinces with per capita GDP exceeding 43736 Yuan,infrastructure investment and energy subsidies had more significant positive effects on distributed energy;the influences of technological progress and dependence on foreign oil shifted from non-significant to significantly positive;the impacts of international oil prices and industrial structure changed from significantly negative to positive;the influences of energy structure changed from signifi-cantly negative to non-significant,and urbanization shifted from non-significant to significantly negative.

distributed energyspatial dependencespatial threshold panel modelinfluencing factorthreshold effect

林泽融、陈建宝

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福建师范大学数学与统计学院,福建福州 350117

分布式能源 空间关联性 空间门限面板模型 影响因素 门限效应

国家社会科学基金福建省自然科学基金福建省自然科学基金

22BTJ0242020J011702022J01193

2024

资源开发与市场
四川省自然资源科学研究院

资源开发与市场

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:0.581
ISSN:1005-8141
年,卷(期):2024.40(6)