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中国沿海省份枢纽经济发展评价及其障碍因子分析

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在建设现代化经济体系背景下,评价枢纽经济发展水平对于经济高质量发展具有重要意义.运用熵权-VIKOR模型测算2011-2021年中国11个沿海省份的枢纽经济发展指数,并采用障碍度模型和PVAR模型分析影响枢纽经济发展的障碍因子及其动态影响效应.结果表明:中国沿海省份枢纽经济发展水平总体呈平稳增长态势,正处于阶段性的过渡期;各省枢纽经济发展变化趋势不尽相同,在空间分布上存在明显的非均衡性和异质性特征,表现出中间高、南北低的"纺锤型"格局;区域辐射力、绿色投入指数、本地资本集聚度和运输线网规模是制约枢纽经济发展的主要障碍因子,对枢纽经济发展指数的影响具有长期性和滞后性.未来应继续强化资金保障、加快技术创新和完善综合运输网络,以持续推动枢纽经济发展.
Evaluation and obstacle factor analysis of hub economy development in China's coastal provinces
Under the background of building a modern economic system,the level development of hub economy is of great signifi-cance for high-quality economic development.The paper used entropy-VIKOR model to calculate the hub economy development in-dex of 11 coastal provinces in China from 2011 to 2021,and applied obstacle degree model and PVAR model to analyze main obstacle factors and their dynamic impact effects.The results showed that the overall development level of hub economy in China?s coastal provinces increased steadily,and it was currently in a transitional period;The development trends of hub economy varied among prov-inces,and there were obvious non-equilibrium and heterogeneity characteristics in spatial distribution,showing a"spindle-shaped"pattern of high in the middle and low in the north and south.Regional radiation,green investment index,local capital agglomeration and transportation network scale were four main obstacles to hub economy development,which had long-term and lagging effects on the de-velopment index of hub economy.In order to keep up promoting hub economy development,government should continue to strengthen fi-nancial support,accelerate technological innovation,and improve the comprehensive transportation network in the future.

hub economydevelopment indexobstacle factorsPVAR modelentropy-VIKOR model

汪玲、黄薇、郭凤艳

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大连交通大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连 116028

枢纽经济 发展指数 障碍因子 PVAR模型 熵权-VIKOR模型

辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目

JYTMS20230043

2024

资源开发与市场
四川省自然资源科学研究院

资源开发与市场

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:0.581
ISSN:1005-8141
年,卷(期):2024.40(6)