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人口老龄化对区域经济韧性的影响研究

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基于中国省域面板数据对2010-2021年人口老龄化与经济韧性之间的关系进行研究,并进一步分析人口老龄化对经济韧性影响程度的区域异质性.研究发现:①人口老龄化对经济韧性产生正向影响.实证结果表明,经济发展能够适应人口结构的变化,并从中获得新的增长动力,增强其抗冲击能力和持续增长能力;②产业结构高级化正向影响经济韧性,表明技术密集和知识密集的产业能够提高经济体的恢复力和适应外部冲击的能力.社会消费水平和基础设施水平的提升没有显著增强经济韧性;③人口老龄化在东部地区显著的促进了经济韧性水平的提升;中部地区人口老龄化对经济韧性有正向影响,但影响较小且不显著;西部地区人口老龄化对经济韧性有显著的负面影响.
Study on the impacts of population aging on regional economic resilience
Based on panel data from Chinese provinces,this paper investigated the relationship between population aging and eco-nomic resilience from 2010 to 2021,and further analyzed the regional heterogeneity of the impact of population aging on economic resili-ence.The results showed that:①The population aging positively impacted economic resilience.The empirical results indicated that eco-nomic development could adapt to changes in population structure and gain new growth momentum from it,enhancing its ability to with-stand shocks and sustain growth.②The advancement of industrial structures had a positive impact on economic resilience,indicating that technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive industries could enhance the recovery of the economy and its ability to adapt to external shocks.The improvement of social consumption level and infrastructure level had not significantly enhanced economic resili-ence.③The population aging had significantly promoted the improvement of economic resilience in the eastern region.The population aging in the central region had a positive impact on economic resilience,but the impact was relatively small and not significant.The pop-ulation aging in the western region had a significant negative impact on economic resilience.

population agingeconomic resilienceheterogeneity analysis

卢冰坤、张学波、吴江楠、何志浩

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曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,山东日照 276826

曲阜师范大学黄河生态研究院,山东曲阜 273165

人口老龄化 经济韧性 异质性分析

国家自然科学基金面上项目山东省泰山学者青年专家计划

42071150tsqn202306183

2024

资源开发与市场
四川省自然资源科学研究院

资源开发与市场

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:0.581
ISSN:1005-8141
年,卷(期):2024.40(11)