Carrying Capacity of Water Resources for China's Development
The paper has defined clearly the carrying capacity of water resources (CCWR) in China, and calculated CCWR for population, GDP, environment, and for domestic, agriculture, and industry consumption as well. The results indicate that the theoretical CCWR is 6.3 billion populations if current level of water consumption is maintained in the future under the assumption that water resources is utilized by 100 percent. However, the actual maximum percentage of water resources that could be utilized is only 40 percent, which could carry 2.5 billion people. It is estimated that in the coming 20 years, effective population CCWR will be 1.5 to 1.8 billion that is still within the limitation of CCWR, with a scope of 0.25 to 0.51 billion people to be carried. Due to unbalanced distribution between population and water resources in the country, population CCWR exceeds the maximum limitation of water resources in some regions, while in other regions, it is within the scope. Severe overloaded areas, with 50% of overloading of per capita water resources are found in Beijing, Tianjing, Hebei, Shanxi, Iiaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and Ningxia, while the areas with ±15% of overloading of per capita water resources are relatively balanced areas of CCWR and observed in Zhejiang, Hubei, and Guangdong, and the areas with 50% surplus of CCWR are located in Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hainan, Qinghai and provinces in southwest regions of the country. In addition, economic CCWR under current development activities can still be sustained, and water resources can meet domestic demand in rural areas, with an exception of the North China Plain. With increasing population in the country, CCWR will become a critical issue, and some strategies such as transfer of water resources among the regions should be adopted nationwide.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
