首页|基于Budyko假设评估洮儿河流域中上游气候变化的径流影响

基于Budyko假设评估洮儿河流域中上游气候变化的径流影响

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洮儿河流域申上游为我国东北典型生态敏感地区,近几十年来由于受到人类活动与气候变化的综合影响,一系列生态问题开始凸显.为更好的进行水资源管理,迫切需要准确评估气候变化及人类活动对径流的影响.本文基于Penman-Monteith公式计算研究区及其周边气象站点的潜在蒸散发,采用非参数Mann-Kendall检验及滑动T检验识别径流、降水及潜在蒸散发的趋势及突变点.发现作为整个研究区控制站点,洮南站年径流具有明显上升趋势并以1985年为突变点,据此将研究时段划分为基准期及变化期.然后利用降水及潜在蒸散数据,基于6种Budyko公式评估气候变化时年径流影响,结果表明气候因素约占45%.研究结论证实了人类活动对流域水文过程的确具有显著影响,增进了对该区水文水资源的认识.
Impacts of Climate Variability on Streamflow in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Taoer River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis
The upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, representing an ecologically sensitive area in northeastern China, has undergone a combined impact of climate change and human activities (e.g., rapid agricultural and industrial development) since 1961. A series of environmental problems are becoming prominent and a great alteration of the streamflow was reported. There is therefore an urgent need to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow to facilitate water resources management in this region. Streamflows during the period 1961-2000 from several gauged stations of three selected sub-catchments and the entire upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, including Charlson, Gaojiatun, Dashizhai and Taonan, were used. Ten precipitation stations and nine meteorological stations located in or around the basin were selected. The potential evapotranspiration of the study river basin was calculated with mean monthly minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, sunshine hour, and wind speed for the study period in conjunction with the FAO56 Penman Monteith equation. The precipitation observations and calculated potential evapotranspiration were spatially averaged across the study area. A digital elevation model (DEM) with a grid resolution 100m × 100m was used. Land use maps in the early 1970s, 1986 and 2000 with a spatial scale of 1∶100,000 were obtained. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and moving t-test were jointly used to identify trends and point mutations contained in the streamflow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration time series.Results show a marked upward trend for annual streamflows, and that an abrupt change was identified in year 1985 at the Taonan station, the outlet of the entire river basin. In general, the streamflows show agreement with changing patterns in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, although a discrepancy of about two years was observed. The streamflow time series were then divided into the baseline period and changed period. Six Budyko functions were employed to quantify the impacts of climate variability and human activities on mean annual streamflows on the basis of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Analysis of the increment in the mean annual streamflows between the baseline and the changed period indicates that climate variability and human activities accounted for about 45% (15.09 mm) and 55% (18.44 mm) of the change in streamflow, respectively. This study provides an improved understanding of the water balance over this region and creates an opportunity to further apply these approaches and techniques to address climate change impact on streamflows over other river basins.

李斌、李丽娟、覃驭楚、梁丽乔、李九一、柳玉梅

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中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101

中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049

The Royal Institute of Technology(KTH),Stockholm,Sweden

径流 气候变化 人类活动 Budyko曲线 突变

中国科学院方向性项目欧盟第六框架计划项目

KZCX2-YW-Q06-1SWTTCH-018530

2011

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.408
ISSN:1007-7588
年,卷(期):2011.33(1)
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