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中国饮食所需耕地面积长时间尺度变化研究

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本文揭示中国1961年-2007年间饮食所需耕地面积(LRF)的变化趋势及其影响要素.基于联合国粮农组织的统计数据,利用IPAT等式分析了1961年-2007年间中国粮食的饮食结构、单产、复种指数和人口数量对饮食所需耕地面积变化的影响.在1961年-2007年间中国总的LRF的变化曲线具有明显的阶段性,但总体上呈增长趋势.人均LRF在研究时段内呈现‘V’字形的变化趋势；人均每天热量、脂肪和蛋白质摄入量增长显著,同时,根据国家制定的热量、脂肪和蛋白质摄入量的饮食标准,饮食结构在研究时段内呈现出结构不均衡性；对LRF的影响要素分析表明,在19世纪80年代中期以前,单产是主要的影响因子,后期饮食结构的改善造成的影响超过了单产和人口的影响成为中国LRF变化的主要影响因子；在1961年-2007年之间,粮食自给能力比较稳定.随着中国经济和城市化水平的快速发展,人口饮食将转向获取富含蛋白质与脂肪的食物阶段,未来的饮食结构改善对粮食安全影响需要更多关注.
Changes in the Land Requirements for Food from 1961 to 2007 in China
The purpose of the study was to examine temporal dynamics of land requirements for food (LRF) and diet patterns and the driving factors in food security in China from 1961 to 2007.Methods of the multiplicative contribution of population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T) to environmental impact (Ⅰ) (IPAT) formula and consumption data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) were employed to investigate the relationship between diet patterns, yield, cropping intensity and population and the use of arable land for food.The result showed that total LRF increased from 1961 to 2007, especially that for animal products, vegetable and fruit.The LRF per capita followed a V-shape development.Food consumption per capita increased, and compared with the Chinese national dietary standards, the dietary pattern per capita was not balanced.The intake of calories and fats reached the well-off level, while, but there is long way to go for protein.A striking increase in total land requirements for food has occurred, but the driving factors changed during the studying period.Before the 1980s, increasing in crop yields enabled substantial land requirements for food and is the key factor; after the 1980s, the combined effect of dietary pattern changes and population growth led to increase in land requirements for food.As China continues its rapid economic development and urbanization, people may prefer to eat food containing more fat and protein in the future.Change in dietary patterns should be monitored closely from a food security and arable land requirements perpective.

Land resourcesLand requirements for foodYieldDiet PatternsPopulation development

杨旺明、栾一博、杨陈、崔雪锋

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北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

土地资源 饮食所需耕地面积 单产 饮食结构 人口增长

国家基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题:城市化对我国东部地表物理特性和陆面过程的影响教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划国家自然科学基金国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)课题:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金

2011CB9520012010CB428502NCET-09-0227412715422010AA012305

2013

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.408
ISSN：1007-7588
年,卷(期)：2013.35(5)
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