首页|基于机会成本与Markov链的耕地保护补偿基金测算——以江苏省徐州市为例

基于机会成本与Markov链的耕地保护补偿基金测算——以江苏省徐州市为例

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中国约束性的耕地保护制度安排并没能有效扭转耕地数量锐减的趋势,因而,近年来政府和学术界试图从依靠约束性制度向激励与约束并重转变展开探索,耕地保护补偿正是这一探索过程中的重要突破.本文以江苏省徐州市为例,在利用RS和GIS技术对土地利用变化进行动态监测的基础上,应用Markov链预测土地利用结构变化,预测规划期重要时间节点2015年和2020年的耕地面积分别为516 301hm2和493 849hm2;并依据机会成本理论初步测算出耕地保护补偿标准,然后结合政府财政收支情况设置修正比例系数进行调整,调整后2010年耕地保护补偿标准为6 510.33 元/hm2,补偿基金规模为35.85亿元,占2010年徐州是财政总收入的8.7％;2015年和2020年的补偿标准分别为10 399.68元/hm2和14 181.53元/hm2,均在财政承受力预测的合理范围内.由此,本文提出了不同于已有文献的、与耕地数量变化调控相结合并考虑政府财政可承受力的耕地保护补偿基金标准及规模测算的思路与方法.
Preservation compensation accounting for farmland based on opportunity costs and Markov chains: a case study on Xuzhou City
In recent years the constrained preservation system of farmland has failed to reverse the trend of farmland loss or reduction in China.However,governments and researchers are now trying to correct the situation.Here,this paper examines compensation for farmland preservation,important breakthroughs,and efforts during this process.It presents the ideas and methods of accounting for the total compensation for farmland preservation,combined with agricultural land quantity change control and governmental finance capability.Then,it accounts for the compensation standards according to the theory of opportunity costs.For farmland quantity change,the paper uses remote sensing and GIS technology to monitor land use changes,and uses Markov chains to forecast land use structural change and predict farmland area in important,key and landmark years for Xuzhou,Jiangsu,China.It predicts that farmland area in Xuzhou will decrease to 516 301hm2 by the end of 2015,and by 2020 the area will drop to 493 849hm2.Preliminary results show that the compensation standard is too high to be paid by the fiscal spending of Xuzhou city.Thus,according to fiscal capacity and affordability,the paper is setting a proportional coefficient to adjust the compensation standard.After adjustment,the compensation standard for 2010 is 6 510.33CNY/hm2 and the total compensation for farmland protection is 35.85 million CNY; the compensation standard for 2015 and 2020 is 10 399.68CNY/hm2 and 14 181.53 NY/hrn2,respectively.The adjusted result not only would deceed the local fiscal capacity and affordability,but also as a policy instruction would stimulate farmer activity of farmland preservation.In general,policy should strengthen the construction of the system for farmland preservation compensation and shift the emphasis from only constrains to equal emphasis on incentives and constraints.

farmland preservationstandard of preservation compensationtotal compensation for preservationopportunity costMarkov chainfiscal capacitydynamic change control

陈会广、吕悦

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南京农业大学中国土地问题研究中心,南京210095

耕地保护 补偿标准 耕地保护补偿基金 机会成本 Markov链 财政承受力 调控

国土资源部高层次创新型科技人才培养工程-杰出青年科技人才培养计划江苏省国土资源厅科技项目徐州市国土资源局2010年度课题教育部哲学社会研究重大课题攻关项目

20130210611JZD031

2015

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.408
ISSN：1007-7588
年,卷(期)：2015.37(1)
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