首页|1978-2013年中国粮食主产区“粮-经”关系分析

1978-2013年中国粮食主产区“粮-经”关系分析

Relationship of grain output and economic development from 1978 to 2013 in the major grain producing area of China

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运用区域重心、地理集中度和CGE等方法,基于全国粮食主产区1978-2013年省域层面粮食产量和地区生产总值(GDP)数据,计算改革开放以来主产区粮食重心、经济重心、粮食集中度、经济集中度和粮-经耦合系数,并对主产区的粮食生产和经济发展水平的关系(“粮-经”关系)及其一致性进行分析.结果显示:①1978年以来主产区粮食重心和经济重心均位于主产区几何重心的西南侧;主产区粮食重心总体向东北移动,移动幅度较大且不稳定,经济重心总体向主产区西南方向移动,移动缓慢且稳定;1978年粮-经重心相互偏离1.17个纬度,2013年经济重心位于粮食重心的西南方,粮-经重心相互偏离1.51个纬度,粮-经重心南北偏离程度进一步扩大;②1978年主产区粮-经关系表现出弱协调性,主产区经济水平相对发达的东部地区其粮食生产水平低于经济发展水平,粮食集聚的逆经济性开始显现;2013年主产区粮-经关系以粮食集聚高于经济集聚为主要特征,粮食集聚表现出明显的逆经济性;1978-2013年,主产区粮食与经济相互协调的省域单元个数减少,粮食-经济一致性系数差值明显增加.经济发展水平与粮食生产水平不一致程度呈增强趋势,粮食-经济二者空间不匹配,加剧“产粮大区、经济贫困”的恶性局面.
Using yearly statistics for grain output and economic development (GDP) from 1978-2013 at the provincial level in the major grain producing area (MGPA) in China,three indicators including the gravity center (GC),geographic concentration index (GCI),and coupling index (CI),were used to determine the GCs of grain output and economic development,quantify the concentration degrees of grain output and economic development and its related CI,and then analyze the relationship and consistency between grain output and economic development.We found that the yearly GCs of grain output and economic development were typically located in the southwest of the geometric GC of MGPA.The grain GC generally moved in a northeastward direction characterized by noticeable but unstable movement,whereas the economic GC moved in an opposite (southwestward)direction featured by slight and stable movement from 1978 to 2013.In 1978,there was 1.173 8 latitudinal degrees of the GCs between grain output and economic development.However,the deviation of the two GCs further increased to 1.506 8 degrees in 2013,and the GC of grain was located to the southwest of the economic GS.Both grain output and economic development showed a weak conformity in 1978.Developed provinces in the east of the MGPA had a lower level of grain production,displaying a slightly reverse-economic feature in the course of grain production concentration.However,the grain-economy relationship was characterized by higher concentration of grain output with obvious reverse-economic feature.In the past 35 years,the number of provinces featured by conformity declined,while difference in the consistency coefficient of grain-economy increased.The inconsistency between economic level and grain production showed an increased tendency which meant both were not spatially-matched,leading to an unfavorable situation labelled by weak economy in the MGPA.

grain outputeconomic developmentgravity centerCGE indexmajor grain producing areaChinareform and opening up

刘影、肖池伟、李鹏、姜鲁光

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江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,南昌330022

中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

粮食生产 经济发展 重心 CGE 粮食主产区 中国 改革开放

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室(江西师范大学)开放基金资助项目江西师范大学研究生境内外访学项目

4136110441430861PK2014010

2015

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.408
ISSN：1007-7588
年,卷(期)：2015.37(10)
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