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全球光伏组件贸易网络结构动态演变及驱动机制

Dynamic evolution and driving mechanism of global photovoltaic module trade network

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[目的]能源危机背景下越来越多的国家(地区)加快了对光伏可再生能源的布局,光伏组件成为全球光伏产业链贸易流动的重要环节,揭示全球光伏组件贸易网络的驱动机制十分必要.[方法]本文采用2001-2021年全球114个国家(地区)的光伏组件贸易数据,运用复杂网络分析方法和动态指数随机图模型(TERGM)探究全球光伏组件贸易网络结构的动态演变特征及其内生和外生驱动机制.[结果]研究发现:①全球光伏组件贸易网络呈现高聚集性和较短路径长度,国家(地区)间光伏组件贸易差距呈扩大态势,存在贸易中心极化特征,形成区域内贸易为主导的紧密贸易网络.②全球光伏组件贸易网络具有典型的核心—边缘结构特征,贸易集团聚类分布现象凸显,以中国为核心的贸易集团影响力最大.③全球光伏组件贸易网络存在互惠效应、结构依赖效应和时间依赖效应.④国家(地区)的经济发达程度、贸易自由度、环境绩效指数和碳排放量对全球光伏组件贸易联系建立的影响显著为正.国家(地区)间的接壤网络、收入水平网络、WTO成员网络是对其有重要影响的外生网络.[结论]全球光伏组件贸易规模不断扩大,贸易网络的重心不断东移,需重视对新兴市场的开发与合作,加强沟通和协调,推动全球光伏产业链的国际合作和融合发展.
[Objective]Under the background of energy crisis,countries(regions)around the world have accelerated the distribution of photovoltaic(PV)renewable energy,so it is important to explore the dynamic evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of the global PV module trade network structure.[Methods]The complex network analysis method and temporal exponential random graph model(TERGM)were used to explore the structural evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of the global PV module trade network.[Results](1)The global photovoltaic module trade network is highly clustered and has a short path length,and the trade gap between countries(regions)is widening,forming a close trade network dominated by intraregional trade.(2)The global PV module trade network has a typical core-periphery structure,and China is at the center of the core circle.(3)The worldwide PV module trade network exhibits reciprocal effects,structure-dependent effects,and time-dependent effects.(4)The impacts of national economic development,trade freedom,environmental performance index,and carbon emissions on the establishment of global photovoltaic module trade network are significantly positive,while the national urbanization and industrialization rates are negative.The exogenous networks that have a significant impact on them are the national border network,the income grade network,and the WTO member network.[Conclusion]China should take its central position at the global PV trade network as an opportunity to strengthen technological innovation,strengthen the resilience of the PV supply chain,speed up the convergence of the PV industry,and achieve differentiated development of products.The country should give full play to its geographical proximity to global and regional markets,promote trade diversification,actively promote international cooperation and integrated development of the PV industrial chain,and push forward the energy revolution to achieve the dual carbon goals.

photovoltaic modulesglobal trade network structuredynamic evolutiondriving mechanismtemporal exponential random graph model

程云洁、刘旭

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新疆财经大学经济学院,乌鲁木齐 830000

昌吉学院,昌吉 831100

光伏组件 全球贸易网络结构 动态演变 驱动机制 动态指数随机图模型

新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金新疆高校人文社会科学重点研究基地重点项目新疆维吾尔自治区高等学校科研计划(2023)新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目(2023)

21BJL035XJEDU2022J020XJEDU2023P130XJUFE2023B002

2023

10.18402/resci.2023.12.03

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.408
ISSN：1007-7588
年,卷(期)：2023.45(12)
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