首页|面向双碳战略的前瞻性生命周期评价——研究进展与方法框架

面向双碳战略的前瞻性生命周期评价——研究进展与方法框架

Prospective life cycle assessment targeting the dual-carbon strategy:Progress review and methodological framework

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在"双碳"战略目标驱动下,评价低碳、零碳、负碳新兴技术的潜在环境影响,在技术发展的早期阶段从系统观视角对技术的开发提供决策参考,对从源头上降低技术全生命周期的资源能源消耗和环境排放具有重要意义和实用价值.本文辨析比较了生命周期评价的相关概念,综述了国内外前瞻性生命周期评价领域的研究进展,运用文献计量学方法从研究趋势、研究对象、关键领域等方面深入分析了前瞻性生命周期评价方法的发展和应用现状.针对该方法面临的数据可用性不足、规模放大非线性、不确定性大、可比性低等挑战,本文提出了前瞻性生命周期评价方法的综合框架.最后,阐述了该方法在支撑中国双碳战略目标方面的重要作用,并提出了未来的改进建议与应用展望,以期为其在中国的本地化应用提供实用参考.在未来,使用该方法进行技术比较和选择将促进降碳技术的创新与发展,助力推动更低成本、更环境友好的新技术开发,从而实现"双碳"目标.
In order to achieve the"dual carbon"goals,it is of great significance to evaluate the potential environmental impact of emerging technologies and make decisions in the early stages of technological development to reduce energy consumption and environmental impact throughout the entire life cycle of these technologies.Life cycle assessment can analyze the potential environmental impact of a product or service throughout its life cycle.Prospective life cycle assessment has been proposed to evaluate emerging technologies that are uncommercialized.This study analyzed relevant definitions of life cycle assessment,reviewed articles on prospective life cycle assessment both in China and internationally,and used bibliometric methods to explore the status of prospective life cycle assessment research in terms of research trends,objects,and key fields.Considering the four challenges associated with the method,including low comparability,nonlinear scale amplification,limited data availability,and high uncertainty,a comprehensive framework for prospective life cycle assessment has been proposed.This article also discussed the difficulties and challenges of using prospective life cycle assessment in research in China and provides suggestions for future improvement and application prospects.This study provides a reference for the localization application of the method in China,help the development of carbon reduction technology innovation,and coordinate pollution reduction.It can also help us identify product and supply chain hotspots from a systematic perspective,adopt targeted adjustments,avoid the transfer of environmental pollution burden,and achieve the"dual carbon"goals with a lower cost and environmentally friendly path.

prospective life cycle assessmentemerging technologylow-carbon technologyzero-carbon technologynegative-carbon technologymanufacturing readiness leveltechnology readiness levelscale-up

张冰倩、高晗博、田金平、陈吕军

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清华大学环境学院,北京 100084

清华大学生态文明研究中心,北京 100084

前瞻性生命周期评价 新兴技术 低碳技术 零碳技术 负碳技术 生产成熟度 技术成熟度 规模放大

黄河流域碳达峰范式与试点项目国家自然科学基金

2022-YRUC-01-040352170181

2023

10.18402/resci.2023.12.04

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.408
ISSN：1007-7588
年,卷(期)：2023.45(12)
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