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全球锂产业链贸易格局演化及脆弱性分析

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[目的]本文旨在模拟贸易中断风险发生时锂产业链贸易网络的脆弱性，以有效识别关键节点和网络的潜在风险，为优化贸易格局和规避风险提供决策支持。[方法]基于贸易流向分析锂产业链2000-2021年的贸易格局演化情况，采用蓄意攻击法模拟2021年PageRank中心度前10％的节点发生贸易中断后锂产业链贸易网络脆弱性动态变化。[结果]研究显示:①锂产业链全球贸易格局正面临深刻的重组与变革，中国在全球贸易网络中的地位凸显;②样本期内锂产业链上游网络抗毁性有所提升，中游和下游网络抵御风险能力相对稳定;③锂产业链脆弱性排名为下游＜中游＜上游，当全球前10％的关键节点贸易中断后，上游、中游和下游贸易网络的整体性能分别平均下降60％、35％和23。5％。[结论]为维护中国与世界的锂产业安全与稳定，应进一步建立和完善锂产业链安全风险预警与应急保障机制;建立锂产业链各利益主体之间的合作共赢机制，增强产业链与供应链、价值链之间的正向响应能力;提高锂资源国内自主供给保障能力和全球配置能力。
Evolution and vulnerability analysis of the global trade pattern in the lithium industry chain
[Objective]This study aims to simulate the vulnerability of the lithium industry trade network in the event of interruption risks.The goal is to effectively identify key nodes and potential risks in the network,providing decision support for optimizing trade patterns and avoiding interruption risks.[Methods]Analyzing the evolution of the lithium industry trade pattern based on trade flow methods,intentional attack simulations were conducted to assess the vulnerability of the lithium industry trade network after trade interruptions occurred in the top 10％of nodes by PageRank centrality.[Results]The research reveals:(1)The global trade pattern of the lithium industry chain is undergoing profound restructuring and transformation,with China's position highlighted in the global trade network.(2)Invulnerability in the upstream network of the lithium industry chain has improved during the sample period,while the risk resistance capabilities of the midstream and downstream networks are relatively stable.(3)The vulnerability ranking of the lithium industry chain is downstream＜midstream＜upstream.When trade interruptions occur in the top 10％of global key nodes,the overall performance of the upstream,midstream,and downstream trade networks decreases by an average of 60％,35％,and 23.5％,respectively.[Conclusion]To maintain the security and stability of China's and the global lithium industry,the following measures should be implemented:enhance and refine safety risk warning and emergency support mechanisms within the lithium industry chain;establish a cooperative,win-win framework among key stakeholders in the lithium industry chain to bolster positive response capabilities across the industry,supply chain,and value chain;and improve domestic self-sufficiency and global allocation capabilities for lithium resources.

lithium industry chainevolutionary patternvulnerabilitykernel density estimationtrade interruptionPageRank centrality

左芝鲤、成金华、詹成、郭海湘

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成都理工大学管理科学学院,成都 610059

中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉 430074

锂产业链 演化格局 脆弱性 核密度估计 贸易中断 PageRank中心度

国家自然科学基金重大项目国家社会科学基金重点项目国家自然科学基金面上项目四川省自然科学基金青年项目

7199148223AZD0727207419824NSFSC4417

2024

10.18402/resci.2024.01.09

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.408
ISSN：1007-7588
年,卷(期)：2024.46(1)
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